For the first time, polemicist Éric Zemmour seems in a position to qualify in the second round of the presidential election against Emmanuel Macron, according to a Harris Interactive poll for Challenges.
It’s a first. Eric Zemmour is given the ability to qualify for the second round of the presidential election in a Harris Interactive poll for Challenges this Wednesday. The polemicist would collect 45% of the voting intentions against 55% for Emmanuel Macron, in this barometer carried out seven months before the election.
In the first round, Emmanuel Macron still comes far ahead. He obtains between 24% and 27% of voting intentions depending on the hypotheses, up one point. In each of the configurations tested, Eric Zemmour is in second position, collecting between 17% and 18% of the voting intentions. He is closely followed by Marine Le Pen, given between 15 and 16%, excluded for the first time from the campaign of the second round.
“Never has a candidate known in such a short time, in measures of voting intentions, an evolution such as that experienced by Eric Zemmour”, specifies in the explanation of the poll Antoine Gautier, researcher at Harris Interactive.
The columnist’s rating has indeed been on a strong upward trend since September 8, when his candidacy was tested for the first time by this institute, collecting 7% of voting intentions.
The electoral pools of François Fillon and Marine Le Pen during the previous presidential election weigh heavily in the Zemmour vote, according to the investigation. Nearly 3 out of 10 voters of Fillon and Le Pen in the first round of the 2017 presidential election would now turn to the columnist.
Abstention on the left and carryovers of votes on the right
For the second round, the high score of Zemmour is explained first of all by a form of “de-involvement” of left-wing voters, according to the survey. Half of them say they do not want to move to decide the potential duel Zemmour-Macron.
Then, the one who has not yet declared himself as a candidate, benefits from “good reports” from right-wing voters. 38% of the voters of the right-wing candidate Xavier Bertrand and 41% of the voters of Marine Le Pen, say they are ready to support him. Finally, 98% of Zemmour supporters confirm their vote for the second round.
The survey underlines that 43% of Lepéniste voters do not express voting intentions during this second round. It also notes “a republican front for the less dysfunctional”, delivering to the two potential candidates “levers to hope to win”.
The right in decline
For their part, the candidates for the primary of the right tested are in slight decline. Xavier Bertrand is at 13% (-1, and even -2 since the start of the school year), Valérie Pécresse at 11% (-1, and even -3 since the start of the school year) and Michel Barnier 7% (-1).
On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon regains his score of 11% measured throughout the month of September, after an ephemeral increase of 2 points last week, a consequence of his televised debate with Eric Zemmour. Yannick Jadot, designated as an environmental candidate during the primary of September 28, is him at the level of Anne Hidalgo in the case of a candidacy of Xavier Bertrand (6% each). He takes a slight advantage over the mayor of Paris (7% against 6%) in the hypotheses where Valérie Pécresse and Michel Barnier would be the right-wing candidates.
Methodology: Survey carried out online from October 1 to 4, 2021. Sample of 1,310 people representative of the French population aged 18 and over, including 1,062 people registered on the electoral rolls.