Xi Jinping’s ambition, where does his consolidation in power lead China?

The Chinese president will renew his third term at the 20th Communist Party Congress that begins this SundayXi Jinping has accumulated more power and has made the foreign policy of the world’s second largest economy more aggressiveThe bases of Chinese policy during the next five years are established in This 20th Xi Jinping Party Congress was a child, a red prince, when his father went from being a hero of the communist revolution to being disgraced and imprisoned by Mao. The family suffered purge and ostracism. At the age of 15, Xi was forced to move to the countryside to work hard as a peasant, following the “re-education” plan imposed by the Cultural Revolution. He lived in a cave and, according to him, that time forged his character. At the age of 20, after many rejections due to that family stain, he managed to join the Chinese Communist Party. Now, at 69, he is about to renew his third term as president, the most powerful in the last three decades, of the most populous country in the world. The Chinese leader hopes to consecrate himself at the XX Congress of the Communist Party -which begins this Sunday- , a key event that is held every five years and that marks Chinese policy for the next five years. After the abolition of the two-term limit in 2018, Xi will strengthen his control over the world’s second largest economy. What have been the main lines in his ten years at the helm of China? There are basically three of them, as Mario Esteban, principal investigator for Asia-Pacific at the Elcano Royal Institute, explains to NIUS. Concentration of power in his person. Xi Jinping has pushed for a larger autocracy than existed in the previous reformist period. He is president of the country, general secretary of the Party and head of the Central Military Commission. Increased power of the Party as a whole. With it, the control of the Communist Party over the State Administration and the Army has been further strengthened. This has also manifested itself in society as a whole. “And one area in which this is significant is in the business sphere. In the reformist period, the tendency was to further liberalize the economy (with some limits), but with Xi we are seeing a greater weight of the public sector in the economy. and greater control of political decisions in the economic sphere,” says Esteban. More aggressive foreign policy. Another clear sign of his mandate is “a greater assertiveness and, even, more aggressiveness from China to assert its interests in the international arena. A more daring, firmer foreign policy,” says the expert. Under his command, Xi has launched a harsh campaign against corruption; a cleanup that has also served to eliminate his political rivals by accusing them of various crimes. To determine the extent of his accumulation of power in the coming years, it is important to know the new composition of the permanent committee of the Politburo (the Party’s highest body) and whether it includes its supporters. The challenge that could weaken the Chinese leader Two days ago, Beijing blocked on the Internet all the references to an unusual protest in the Chinese capital in which banners against the president and the restrictions against covid were seen. Is there any challenge that could weaken the power or erode the figure of the Chinese leader? The response is framed in the context of the harsh “zero covid” policy that Beijing maintains and that still includes strict confinements, and that increase fatigue and discomfort among the population. As Esteban explains, Xi has identified that policy with his figure. There was a time, at the beginning of the pandemic, when China’s management allowed it to boast about the advantages of the communist system over the West. However, with the development of the vaccine and the normalization of the situation in Western countries. this situation has changed. “The country is not living with covid. The number of deaths and those affected is very low, but the economic and social cost is quite evident,” says the expert from the Elcano Royal Institute. And he adds: “If China were to try to live with the virus now, it would not be easy because its vaccines are worse; because there is a very high percentage of the population that does not want to be vaccinated and because the percentage of the population that has had covid is also very low. have quite a severe health impact”. Controls against covid in the press center of the XX Congress of the Communist Party, in Beijing, on October 14. Kevin Frayer / Getty How is Xi going to manage this reality? “On the one hand, if you keep the current policy, people will be more and more unhappy about the cost of it. On the other hand, if you relax, you can face a very serious health threat. If you are not able to manage this, you can become its most obvious failure,” concludes the expert. Rivalry for global leadership Xi has promoted a harder line in its relationship with the West in a context of rivalry between China and the United States for global leadership. In recent years, moves by Washington to counter Beijing’s growing influence have widened the gap. The relationship between the two countries has been strained by trade, espionage, accusations of human rights violations, the restriction of freedoms in Hong Kong or the visit to Taiwan of the president of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi (China responded to that trips with military exercises, including the launch of real missiles, around the autonomous island that Beijing describes as a rebel and whose territory it claims). Chinese President Xi Jinping. Kevin Frayer / GettyWith the international focus on Russia’s war in Ukraine, the Asian giant has been momentarily in the background. But for the United States, “the important thing is China; the urgent thing is Russia,” recalls Esteban. If the United States gets the urgency out of the way, it will pay more attention to China. Xi Jinping maintains his close relationship with Vladimir Putin and maintains a kind of “pro-Russian neutrality.” And, as Russia faces international sanctions, it is drawing closer to China, which has more access to cheaper Russian energy sources and raw materials. During the Communist Party’s centennial celebration last year Xi Jinping delivered a defiant message to foreign powers. He assured that “they will receive a blow to the head” if they try to intimidate or influence China. A warning to navigators before the world order that he aspires to.