On the eve of the CPC Congress, Xi Jinping faces the decline of the “Chinese dream”

The Chinese middle class has long embodied the “Chinese dream”, a symbol of the country’s economic prowess. But faced with slowing growth, these millions of people come up against a new reality: rising cost of living, fierce professional competition, real estate bubble… To the point that some are trying to break free from this model of success. A potential major challenge for Xi Jinping. The XX Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), which will open on Sunday October 16, constitutes an event since it must allow Xi Jinping to run for a third term at the head of the country, unheard of since the death of Mao Zedong. in 1976. While the Chinese president should appear stronger than ever, he faces a series of challenges: the growing malaise of the middle class, especially among its youth, undermined by an endless zero-Covid strategy and a flagging economy. This middle class has nevertheless been a pillar of Xi Jinping’s policy since his promotion to the head of the party in 2012. It is at the center of his “Chinese dream”, this concept dear to the president which aims to make of China as a powerful and technologically advanced country, while ensuring social advancement and prosperity for its population. On this last point, it can claim an exceptional record. In ten years, millions of Chinese have emerged from poverty, enjoying an average annual growth of 6%. “Chinese society has changed profoundly, and very quickly. In just a few years, hundreds of millions of Chinese have been able to have access to university and well-paid jobs and, consequently, to benefit from new modes of consumption”, explains Jean-Louis Rocca, sinologist at Science-Po and specialist in the Chinese middle classes. It is estimated today that between 350 and 700 million people belong to the middle class. They were about 15 million at the beginning of the century. A “Chinese dream” which is cracking But this “Chinese dream” now seems to be cracking. First, because of the Chinese economy, which grew by only 0.4% year on year in the second quarter, its weakest performance since the start of the pandemic. Then the zero-Covid strategy, which has put the country on hold for more than two years, a trade dispute with the United States, the war in Ukraine, the exceptional drought… The causes are multiple. The already installed middle class must therefore deal with greater economic pressure and an increase in the cost of living. “Incomes are no longer increasing but expenses are exploding, in particular due to social pressure: to have ‘succeeded’, you have to be able to live in such a neighborhood, put your children in such a school, dress in such brands, have such a car”, enumerates the sociologist. At the same time, healthcare costs are soaring and it is becoming more and more difficult to treat oneself or one’s elderly parents – an important dimension in a strongly aging country. “For some, it gives the feeling of losing quality of life, even of being downgraded,” he explains. On the other side, a whole fringe of the population, especially among the youth, remains blocked in the social elevator. “Universities have never graduated so many students, but not everyone finds work on leaving. Unemployment among qualified young people is around 20%,” continues Jean-Louis Rocca. “By default, some accept lower-paying jobs and see the model of social success dictated by society slip away.” Chinese real estate is the perfect illustration of this “crack” in the Chinese dream. “If there is a symbol of success and social advancement in China, it is to own your home,” explains the sinologist. Proof of this is that 87% of households own their apartment, and 20% own several. But today, for young people, access to property has become almost impossible: land speculation has caused prices to ignite, creating a “housing bubble”. The rents themselves have become prohibitive, particularly in large cities like Beijing. Young people facing an “existential crisis” Difficulties in integrating into professional life, lack of prospects… In this context, part of the young generation prefers to lower its ambitions. In recent months, on social networks, many Internet users have been calling for “tang ping” or “lying flat” – in French, “stay lying down”. The idea: to free oneself from the models of success of Chinese society to adopt a simpler – and happier – way of life. At the origin of this movement, a text written by a Chinese Internet user entitled “Lying Flat is Justice” and posted on an internet forum in July 2021. Luo Huazong says there that five years ago, he quit his job as a worker to reach Tibet. He only works occasionally and survives on around twenty euros a month. “After working for so long, I just felt numb, like a machine. So I quit,” he said in his testimony transcribed by the New York Times and now censored in China. Since then, testimonials expressing this same weariness with everyday life abound on the Web, and are immediately deleted. In the streets, some wear t-shirts bearing the inscription #lying flat. According to the Weibo platform, which conducted a survey of its users between May 28 and June 3, 61% of the 241,000 respondents say they are ready to adopt the “lying flat attitude”. ‘has been transformed into an existential crisis”, analyzes Jean-Louis Rocca. “Faced with the lack of prospects, she no longer sees the point of submitting to the hyper-competitive Chinese system and this 9-9-6 scheme, which consists of working from 9 a.m. to 9 p.m., six days a week. “Until then, everyone thought that the Chinese dream meant that each generation would benefit from a better situation than the previous one”, analyzes Alex Payette, sinologist director of the firm Cercius Group, based in Montreal. “The population now finds itself confronted with the limits of the Chinese dream.” From “lying flat to let it rot” In recent months, the “lying flat” has taken a new turn, giving way to “let it rot” (“let it rot” to rot”, in French). “The first was a kind of call to simple life, the second takes on a more negative dimension, of apathy”, explains Alex Payette. “For example, if I am given something to do at work, not only will I avoid doing it, but if I have to, I will do as little as possible”. And the movement finds its followers: On Xiaohongshu, Chinese Instagram, the term “bailan”, the Mandarin equivalent, yielded about 2.3 million results at the end of September, according to the English-language Chinese media South China Morning Post. On Bilibili, the equivalent of YouTube, videos with “let it rot” in the title are among the most popular at the moment. The “let it rot” is infusing even among party executives, notes Alex Payette. “We have seen the case, for example, during floods: executives prefer to wait for a clear instruction from the governing bodies rather than taking initiatives, even if this has disastrous consequences”, he explains. “It is certainly not an assumed malevolence on the part of these executives but rather the expression of conformity at all costs”. From social unrest to political unrest? More surprisingly, the malaise of the middle class has also been expressed on the ground, during rare demonstrations in a country where any attempt to protest is violently repressed. Some thousands of people demonstrated in May, then in July, in the province of Henan, where four small rural banks in bankruptcy threatened with ruin their customers who demanded to be able to withdraw their frozen savings.>> China: local banks in danger , criminals and a huge financial scandal In the spring, when thousands of real estate developers abruptly interrupted construction sites – a consequence of the economic slowdown –, first-time buyers, for their part, called for a boycott of the repayment of their loan on the networks social. As the 20th Congress of the Communist Party approaches, should the governing bodies fear a mutation of this social malaise into political protest? Few risks, according to Jean-Louis Rocca. “Whether it’s the ‘lying flat’ or even these demonstrations in Henan, these movements remain globally apolitical”, assures the sinologist, who interprets the “lying flat” as the sign of an “individual stall”. “Among the middle class, membership in the party remains very strong,” he insists. “The vast majority, especially those who experienced the Cultural Revolution and the events in Tian’anmen Square, will say that it is indeed thanks to the Party that they have been able to achieve prosperity. There is a rather ambiguous position that is put in place, fatigue sets in but we continue to consider that the Party is taking good care of the population. “Despite everything, the sinologist is convinced, the causes of the malaise of the middle class will be at the center of the . “We see researchers authorized to criticize the weakness of public policies, calling for better financing of health insurance, better fight against social inequalities and lowering property prices. This shows that some, within the Party, wish these reforms”, he explains. “Anyway, the population does not want to go back. In terms of political stability, the Party knows that this is a very important element.” Especially since the question of “common prosperity” – in other words, a better redistribution of income – should be a priority on the agenda of Congress. “China will focus on closing the gaps [socio-économiques]. This will become an important political and strategic objective for us”, recently declared a close friend of the party to the South China Morning Post. “This issue will clearly be one of the major challenges for Xi Jinping’s next term”, abounds Alex Payette. “Especially since in the short term, this could cause job dropouts, especially in certain trades, such as in manufacturing. This would have direct consequences on the economy. Except that ‘common prosperity’, according to Beijing, can only work if the economy picks up again.”