Ukraine, the showdown among the siloviks in Russia

Open warfare between the siloviks has begun in Russia. The defeat of Lyman, less than 24 hours after the signing of the agreements for the annexation of the four regions of southeastern Ukraine by Vladimir Putin, has brought out the rivalries between the different factions of the military and security apparatuses. The battle no longer takes place behind the scenes. The criticisms are made openly and loudly. So much so that some have begun to foresee if not the end of the regime or a coup d’etat, as did Leonid Bershidsky, former director of Vedomosti for years now a refugee in Berlin, in any case changes at the top of the defense. Yesterday, the President of Chechnya, Ramzan Kadyrov, the tycoon at the head of the Wagner forge of mercenaries Evgeny Prigozhin – who in recent days admitted the paternity of the company, as if to collect the due – spoke out against the management of the special military operation. former general now deputy, Andrei Gurulev, Igor Girkin, also known as Strelkov, among the first to take the field in the Donbass in 2014. Influential Z channels (from the symbol used in Russia especially in the first months to catalyze support for the war , ed) like “Rybar” give space and amplify their voices. For the moment, none of them go further, in their public statements, to Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov. But Putin does not have to feel comfortable. More than the request for the use of nuclear warheads of reduced charge, in the words of Kadyrov yesterday, the explicit and ferocious criticism of the commander of the central military district, General Aleksandr Lapin, struck. according to him, he failed to bring the necessary troops, lines of communication, coordination and ammunition to the front. The strongman from the Caucasus, who has shown on several occasions in the past that he can influence Kremlin policies, recalled that last June Lapin was awarded the title of Hero of Russia for taking control of Lysychansk even though “in fact it was not present on the field or even around the front”. Lapin “is a talentless person” who, however, enjoys “the support of the leaders of the general staff”, he added, using the term “nepotism”. “Do you need proof of the cracks within the elite, often a sign of the demise of a regime?” Wrote Russian economist and opponent Konstantin Sonin, now at the University of Chicago, commenting on these statements. “I cannot explain the fall of Lyman,” said Gurulev, former commander of the southern military district, in an interview on the radio of Komsomolskaya Pravda, denouncing “lies from the top to the bottom” of the defense apparatus. Gurulev, who today denounces the disappearance of one and a half million military uniforms, was unable to continue because he was immediately taken off the air. When the line was reconnected shortly thereafter, the former military man limited himself to generic comments: “Send all this barefoot and armed garbage directly to the front,” Prigozhin said yesterday, ready to take the place of the defense leaders who proposes to turn into cannon fodder. “A total schism is taking place within the war lobby that is not destined to end peacefully, without wishing to play on words,” commented the founder of the investigative site Bellingcat, Christo Grozev. of general accounts, not necessarily good news for those hoping for a democratic turnaround in Russia, the pro-Muslim Telegram channel “Readovka” accuses Kadyrov and the others of being worse than the enemy. “Gray Zone” comes to accuse them of working for “the traitors”. The closest explanation to the official one for this “great debate” within the elite, for the criticisms of the situation on the battlefield that no one denies anymore, is that they are the fruit of concern. Concern because in a situation of conflict no breaking decisions have yet been taken such as, for example, the introduction of martial law, the nationalization of companies or the suspension of political activity. “The changes in recent months in Russia have been very limited. And it is one of the reasons why there is concern. It is thought that when there is a conflict of this kind, clearer decisions are needed, “said in an interview today with Lucia Annunziata Andrei Kfortov, general manager of the Riac (Russian International Affairs Council). “Until now, however, the leaders have wanted to safeguard stability and avoid taking steps that could suggest that we move away from normality”, he added. “Many (within the ruling class, ed) say that Russia is not enough and that partial mobilization is the response to criticism of the Kremlin. It is beginning to be understood that Ukraine is a very resistant opponent, aided on a large scale by Westerners, that this conflict will be difficult for Russia and that therefore something must be done to change the course of the battle, to win “. Until now, no significant economic and political reforms have been made and the people surrounding Putin are the same as they were seven months ago.