Afghanistan: one year after the fall of Kabul, the Islamic State organization in ambush

Since the departure of the Americans, the regional branch of the Islamic State organization has continued its work of destabilizing Afghanistan, trying to thrive on the humanitarian crisis, ethnic tensions and internal divisions among the Taliban. The Taliban may boast of having defeated the Islamic State organization in Khorasan, the Afghan branch of the IS, the jihadist group has been constantly recalling for a year its power of nuisance, multiplying the deadly attacks mainly directed against the populations civilians or religious leaders. The latest dates back to Thursday, August 11 with the assassination of Rahimullah Haqqani, a senior Taliban cleric, known for his fiery speeches against the Islamic State organization in Khorasan. He had recently come out in favor of the schooling of young Afghan women. A few days earlier, the terrorist group had claimed responsibility for a bomb attack in a Shiite district of Kabul in which eight people were killed and 18 others injured. The attack targeted the Hazara community, a minority that represents between 10 and 20 percent of the 40 million Afghans, long persecuted in the Sunni-majority country. Although armed violence has generally decreased since the fall of the previous government, the bloody attacks attributed to or claimed by IS-K regularly mourn the country, undermining the Taliban promise made to the population and the international community of a rapid return to order in Afghanistan. ‘action’ According to a tally by UNAMA, the United Nations Mission in Afghanistan, attacks targeting minority ethnic and religious communities left more than 700 dead and 1,400 injured in the country between mid-August 2021 and mid -June 2022. In this long litany of jihadist attacks, the suicide attack at Kabul airport on August 26, 2021 remains the deadliest. That day, in the midst of chaos caused by the Taliban’s lightning offensive on the capital, a suicide bomber managed to blow himself up near an access door and then firearms shots caused the death of 185 people. , including 13 American soldiers.>> To read on France24.com: the defeat of the United States in Afghanistan, a disaster announced Established since 2015 in Afghanistan, in particular in the provinces of Nangarhar and Kunar, near the Pakistani border, the organization Islamic State in Khorasan was founded by cadres of the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban who pledged allegiance to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the former head of the organization. But the Afghan branch of the IS quickly suffered the effects of the double hunt led against its fighters by the former Afghan government supported by the United States and by the Taliban themselves. country and represents the main challenge safe for the new masters of Kabul. “We cannot say that there has been a strengthening of OEI-K, but the group has enjoyed greater freedom of action since the departure of the Americans,” said France 24 journalist Wassim Nasr, specialist in jihadist movements. “If the Taliban had succeeded in countering the ISIS in insurrectional mode, the fight against terrorism in urban areas is another matter and we see that they have more difficulties in this area”. 2,000 men before the departure of the Americans, according to the UN, it is impossible to assess the strength of the OEI-K today, whose “hard core is made up of desocialized and poorly educated young people from rural areas”, observes Myriam Benraad, professor of international relations at Schiller International University and author of “Terrorism: the pangs of vengeance” (Ed. Cavalier bleu). To convince new followers, the terrorist group plays heavily exploits ethnic divisions in its propaganda and targets communities who might feel marginalized by the Taliban’s rise to power – such as the Tajiks, the country’s second-largest ethnic group, accounting for around a quarter of the population. in Kabul and supposedly under the protection of the Taliban, Daesh presented itself as the force to which the Tajiks could turn. However, among these Tajiks are former special forces of the previous Afghan regime who joined the ranks of the Islamic State”, assures Didier Chaudet, associate researcher at the French Institute for Central Asian Studies (IFEAC). The researcher notes a disturbing similarity with the recruitment in Iraq of former members of Saddam Hussein’s intelligence services.>> To read: what does the Islamic State group really weigh against the Taliban? recruiting foreign fighters from Central Asia, but also the most radical members of the Haqqani family and tribal network, closely linked to Al-Qaeda but part of the Taliban. exploit internal divisions in the Taliban, divided between radical ideologues hostile to any compromise with the West and pragmatists ready to make concessions to establish the international credibility of their government. a certain number of Taliban who are not satisfied that the movement rejects the logic of global jihad and who are very tempted by the narrative of the Islamic State”, specifies Myriam Benraad. “We lack hindsight to know if these disappointed Taliban began to replenish the ranks of the OEI”, nuance Wassim Nasr. “Especially since the Taliban remain generally faithful to themselves. The only thing on which they have compromised concerns the protection of the Shiites. It is on this point that the OEI continues to press in its propaganda. to show that the Taliban would be ‘false Muslims’”. The dream of a new caliphateDespite its strong power of nuisance and a capacity to carry out spectacular violent actions, the OEI-K is far from being able to reconstitute a territorial base in Afghanistan.”OEI-K acts in a terrorist mode but has never succeeded in reconstituting a territory, which is a real indicator”, explains Wassim Nasr. is so as to be able to establish governance there, as we have seen in Iraq or Syria. In addition, the mass murders of civilians have made them very unpopular with the Afghan population”, confirms Myriam Benraad. The fact remains that the OEI-K finds in Afghanistan fertile ground for its development in the years to come: a country fragmented by ethnic tensions, an unprecedented humanitarian crisis and a deteriorating security situation.>> To see: Selling a kidney to avoid starvation, the desperate act of many Afghans “If the pressure of economic and social problems led to the collapse of the Taliban power, then the more radical forces could join the Islamic State in Khorasan. The worst that can happen in the years to come is a territorial revival of Daesh and this is one of the objectives of the organization”, assures Didier Chaudet. “The main security danger for Afghanistan, its neighbors and the international community, it is neither the Taliban nor Al-Qaeda but the Islamic State organization in Khorasan.” evolution of the situation and seek to maintain correct relations with the Taliban since their return to the helm. In October 2021, Moscow notably hosted a major international conference – around ten countries took part, including China, Iran and even the Pakistan – initiative intended to integrate the Taliban into the diplomatic game, in parallel with the Doha talks with the United States. In the eyes of the international community, the Taliban appear as the lesser evil for endi fight the hegemonic will of OEI-K. “It’s a negotiating card for the Taliban”, analyzes Myriam Benraad. “However, there are significant doubts about the real relations that unite the jihadist groups with the most radical fringes of the Taliban favorable to global jihad”, as recalled by the presence of Ayman Al-Zawahiri, the leader of Al -Qaeda, in the heart of the Afghan capital. He was killed in late July by an American drone strike.