Fred will probably hit Florida like a tropical storm

(CNN) – Fred is not yet to be left for dead.

Despite appearing disorganized on satellite, the tropical depression may once again strengthen into a tropical storm before hitting Florida as early as Saturday morning, the National Hurricane Center predicts. All this while the next named system that could impact the United States is being formed in the Atlantic.

The forecast for Fred triggered tropical storm warnings on Friday for the southwest coast of Florida, including Key West and Naples. A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

The advisories extend from the Florida Keys west of Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas and all of Florida Bay. A tropical storm watch covers the southwest coast of Florida from Englewood south and east to Ocean Reef, as well as the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Ávila, Camagüey, Las Tunas, Holguín and Granma.

On Friday morning Fred was on the north coast of Cuba with 35 mph winds.

From there, “the storm should continue north of east and central Cuba through tonight and near or through the Florida Keys on Saturday,” says the National Hurricane Center.

After passing through the Keys, you should enter the Gulf of Mexico and head towards Florida’s Big Bend (in the northwest of the state). Some computer models show Fred moving toward the Florida Peninsula, while others place him as far west as the Alabama-Florida border.

“Models continue to show a slow strengthening of Fred before making landfall in northwest Florida or the Big Bend area,” CNN meteorologist Chad Myers said mid-morning Friday. “None of the global models take Fred to hurricane strength, but all too often we see rapid intensification with the Gulf of Mexico storms.”

Heavy rains remain the biggest threat

Heavy rains fell on Friday morning in eastern Cuba. Heavy rain is the main threat from this storm, as Cuba could see up to 127mm of rain in some isolated areas.

Even stronger totals are forecast for Florida.

“Heavy rains could lead to flooding throughout South and Central Florida in the Big Bend region through the weekend,” said CNN meteorologist Allison Chinchar.

“Much of the Florida peninsula is expected to be on the east side of Fred, which is where the heaviest rains and the strongest winds will be,” the National Hurricane Center said.

Two areas of concern for heavy rains and possible flooding through next week: 1) Forecast impacts from Tropical Storm Fred, as well as showers and storms along a frontal system across the southeast, and 2) Continuation of showers and storms associated with the southwest monsoon. pic.twitter.com/D2jJNSpiRF
– NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) August 13, 2021

From Friday through Monday, 76 to 177 millimeters of rain is anticipated across the Keys and across southern and central Florida north of Big Bend, according to the hurricane center. At isolated points, they could drop as much as 254mm.

“Beginning Sunday through the beginning of next week, heavy rains will spread to other parts of the Southeast, including Georgia, Alabama and the Carolinas,” Chinchar said.

Grace could be so much stronger than Fred

And Fred isn’t the only Atlantic storm to turn heads.

“As if everyone’s favorite player was the quarterback understudy, many are already on the lookout for the next disturbance coming up behind Fred, “said Brandon Miller, a CNN meteorologist.

Located in the Central Atlantic, the National Hurricane Center says that by Saturday it will be Tropical Storm Grace. They have given it the name of potential tropical cyclone seven. This would be the seventh named storm of the season.

Tropical storm warnings were issued on Friday morning for Antigua and Barbuda, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat and Saba and Saint Eustatius.

A tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area within 48 hours.

This may be the next hurricane of a season that expected to be above averageas suggested by forecasting computer models.

“The secondary system has the potential to be a stronger storm than Fred,” Chinchar said. “Many models hint that Grace could reach hurricane status, potentially Category 2 or 3. A lot of that will depend on the path that that storm takes, which at least for now appears to be further east than Fred.”

The National Hurricane Center forecast keeps track of the storm between what the computer models produce. However, they are currently forecasting a weaker storm.

Many things may change in the next few days and this is a storm to watch out for.