War in Ukraine: Russia desperately seeks soldiers

After more than a hundred days of fighting in Ukraine, one of the main problems for the Russian general staff is a growing shortage of soldiers. But the war has, in reality, only amplified a deeper weakness of the Russian army. In Severodonetsk, the Russian army is gaining ground… but slowly this Wednesday, June 8. The siege of this key city for the control of part of the Donbass is a reflection of the turn taken by the fighting in recent weeks. The conflict turned into a “war of attrition”, according to Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO. Every battle for a city block or a river bridge drags on. And this war of position or trenches is not Russia’s business. For a simple reason: it quickly runs the risk of running out of men on the front. Strange as it may seem for a nation that historically has often appeared to be a machine for sending out men to fight wave after wave of technologically superior adversaries, such as Nazi Germany in World War II. world. Promises of staggering salaries However, the Russian army is there. It sent recruitment trucks criss-crossing the country as far as Siberia to enlist new recruits for the Ukrainian front, noted the Moscow Times. Another example: ephemeral recruitment offices have been set up near concerts by popular rock groups, underlines the German daily Süddeutsche Zeitung. Russian President Vladimir Putin also approved a law on May 25 that allows all Russians between the ages of 18 and 65 to join the army, whereas until now only Russians under the age of 40 could commit. Moscow is ready to spend a lot to attract these new soldiers. “The army is currently offering to pay new recruits who sign a three-month contract, the equivalent or almost a year’s salary of a resident of certain poor regions,” notes Jeff Hawn, a specialist in Russian military affairs and outside consultant for the New Lines Institute, an American geopolitical research center. [jeunes hommes sur le point d’être incorporés dans l’armée, NDLR] on the front because it is illegal in Russia”, underlines Rod Thornton, specialist in the Russian armed forces at King’s College London. But even on this, the military seems to be taking some liberties with the law. Thus twelve officers were indicted on Monday, June 7, for having sent more than 600 young conscripts to fight in Ukraine, underlines the Moscow Times. How did we come to this frantic quest to find volunteers? In reality, the worm was already largely in the fruit of this army which, before the conflict in Ukraine, was described as the second largest in the world after that of the United States. “On paper, it has a large number of infantry divisions, but what you need to know is that most of the brigades that compose them have been understaffed since the end of the cold war”, notes Rod Thornton. Artillery rather than men This chronic shortage of men “is the result of an evolution over several generations for a population which suffered enormous losses during the two world wars, which bore the brunt of the Stalinist purges and suffered from forced industrialization during the Soviet era”, summarizes Jeff Hawn. In other words, the mobilisable population had shrunk considerably during the fall of the USSR. The trauma of this period then pushed “Moscow to revise its doctrine to place more emphasis on artillery and armor than on ordinary soldiers”, explains Nicolo Fasola, a specialist in security issues in the space of the former Soviet Union at the University of Birmingham. A desire that can also be explained by the demographic crisis that Russia is going through. Moscow does not want to sacrifice men while the authorities are doing everything to halt a serious demographic decline.>> Demographic decline in Russia: “Putin has no other way out but to win” in UkraineAn approach perfectly adapted to flash conflicts, like in Crimea in 2014, and in battles where it is necessary to crush the enemy under a deluge of fire, like in Syria. But for the scenario of the war in Ukraine “where the invading forces seek to take territories, it is above all necessary men capable then of occupying them, which is the Achilles heel of the Russian army”, affirms Nicolo Fasola. The successes of the Ukrainians in kyiv and Kherson, where the occupying forces were pushed back, illustrate this Russian weakness. “The way in which the conflict unfolds was thus more or less written in advance because of this problem of manpower and doctrine ill-suited to the objectives of the war”, sums up the researcher from the University of Birmingham. But this shortage of soldiers “has become a critical problem for Moscow after 100 days of fighting”, assures Jeff Hawn. The Russians have, in fact, lost many men since the beginning of the conflict. It is certainly difficult to have an exact figure, but the estimate of the British intelligence services which report a third of the invasion forces destroyed is that which is most often taken up. As a result: “The Russians have today a lot of artillery and armored vehicles on the front, but few men to use them,” says Rod Thornton. We are very far from the famous golden rule of any armed conflict where the ratio of forces must be 3 against one in favor of the aggressor if the latter wants to win. “Currently, it would be more like two against one and even one against one in some places,” said Jeff Hawn. reasons for the slowdown in Russian progress in the Donbass”, believes Jeff Hawn. This is all the more true since the Ukrainians have, for their part, “much less difficulty than the Russians in motivating volunteers to join the army. to defend the country” notes this expert. To mobilize or not to mobilize, that is the question All the initiatives put in place by Moscow – these recruitment campaigns and the promise of fabulous salaries for ordinary Russians – do not seem to have had great success, says the Moscow Times. It must be said that the Russian army suffers from a serious image deficit. “She has a reputation for being very tough, and for offering very few social benefits”, assures Nicolo Fasola. will not necessarily make them the most motivated recruits against Ukrainian soldiers who are fighting to defend their country”, analyzes Jeff Hawn. This is why Moscow has brought in soldiers from pro-Russian Georgian regions in recent weeks. South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Syria or Chechnya. “It’s a temporary band-aid that will not be enough to solve the longer-term workforce problems”, assures Nicolo Fasola. “It’s far from enough to meet the needs, and these are the troops who will have to learn to integrate into the chain of command set up in Ukraine,” adds Rod Thornton. Vladimir Putin has one last solution: general mobilization. All the experts interviewed believe that the Russian president will only do so as a last resort. Indeed, he would have to recognize that the “special operation” carried out in Ukraine is a war “because otherwise the general mobilization would be illegal”, emphasizes Rod Thornton. A step that Vladimir Putin does not want to take because “it would be politically very costly for him”, assures Nicolo Fasola. a way to strengthen his front without decreeing a general mobilization. But it is not necessarily an advantage that will lead kyiv to final victory. The most likely scenario, according to Rod Thornton, is “that the Russian forces decide to go into defensive mode to camp on their positions”. The Donbass would then turn into a sort of endless conflict zone on the horizon because “the Ukrainians do not have the offensive means to dislodge the Russians except to receive more powerful weapons from Western countries”, affirms the researcher from King’s College London. And this is an option that does not appeal to NATO, anxious not to appear as a co-belligerent in what would then increasingly look like a Third World War.