ANALYSIS | Trump’s defense in the midterm elections predicts a possible new Republican era of extremism

How much did Trump influence Republican candidates in the primaries? 4:50 (CNN) — There is a strong political case for Republicans to ignore Donald Trump in the middle of a midterm primary election season that has seen his influence over voters dwindle. But as the Jan. 6 hearings reach prime time, the former president’s thunderous demands for loyalty and the power-hungry of his acolytes in the House mean that’s not an option. Trump’s demand and the GOP’s willingness to offer a strong defense of what are expected to be damaging details of his complicity in an attempted coup deeply reveal his future political intentions and the former president’s control over his party. The evolving plan to hit back at the committee on Trump’s behalf also exposes the hypocrisy and ambition of top House Republican leaders whitewashing Trump’s role in the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection story. to advance their own careers. It offers an ominous reality check 17 months after the Capitol insurrection on how the House Republican conference chose the promise of future political progress over protecting American democracy. The plan for pro-Trump lawmakers to bombard the media to push back the House select committee’s findings comes ahead of the panel’s first live televised hearing in prime time this Thursday and was revealed in a new CNN report on Sunday. Former Trump adviser held in contempt before January 6 Commission 5:34 The commission is expected to present a devastating case on Trump’s behavior when he tried to steal the 2020 election in the run-up to and during the storming of the Capitol on January 6 January, which he incited and failed to stop as lawmakers ran for their lives. There are potential dangers for Republican backers of Trump as he retells the lurid story of violence, lies and autocratic seizures of power for the American people and for the benefit of history. The evidence could be so damning that those seeking to discredit the hearings will find themselves defending the indefensible: a dark moment in American history that is so heinous it will live in infamy. There are also strong electoral reasons to pass. It’s not a given that the audiences accomplish their apparent purpose and engage Americans long after the event. After all, after four years of tumult that ended in political cataclysm, it’s hard to imagine there are many voters who haven’t decided on Trump. Engaging and turning the audiences into a partisan spectacle could only elevate them. And Republicans have a much clearer route to power five months before the midterm elections than appeasing Trump’s autocracy once again. They can simply blame President Joe Biden for the ills afflicting the country, given the disastrous political environment for Democrats as gas prices hit record highs and the cost of living soars. Anything that deviates from that goal seems reckless. There is also a risk that supporting Trump will rebrand the GOP with the stain of defending a strongman who tried to topple a Democratic election. That view repeatedly punished the party when Trump was in power. And defending him could remind critical suburban voters of how extreme his party has become. Proud Boys members charged with conspiracy 1:31 Trump demands strong defense But Trump’s determination to paint an alternate version of events for Americans through conservative media suggests the former president really doesn’t want it to come to light the true story of his behavior. The January 6 commission, through hundreds of interviews, some with people deep inside Trump’s West Wing, despite obstruction from some of the former president’s former top advisers, appears to have constructed a behind-the-scenes story of the conduct. of Trump. Former advisers to former Vice President Mike Pence are expected to stand out especially in the televised hearings. If the Commission succeeds in convincing Americans of his guilt, it could seriously damage the former president’s hopes of a broader general election hearing if he seeks to run again for the White House in 2024. There is also the possibility that the panel has uncovered information that It could put the twice-indicted president in legal jeopardy, though any criminal referral from the commission would require the Justice Department to launch a prosecution, a potential long shot. As worried as Trump is about the hearings, the willingness of top House Republicans to defend his assault on democracy demonstrates their control over the party. CNN’s Melanie Zanona, Zachary Cohen and Ryan Nobles reported that Trump’s team had communicated with his allies on Capitol Hill that the former president wants a vigorous defense as public hearings unfold on television. This drive dovetails neatly with Trump’s lifelong desire to be in the spotlight and shape the television narrative of his own life. It’s also remarkable that a former president, ousted from office in disgrace after a single term, still has the political ability to wield that kind of influence. This speaks to his appeal in the GOP rank and file and underscores his status as the favorite for any 2024 GOP presidential primary race, even if some of his chosen candidates struggle in the 2022 midterm primaries. And he previews how a new Republican majority in the House next year could be largely a tool for Trump’s increasingly extreme efforts to stymie Biden and regain power. Trump’s power over McCarthy CNN’s report revealed that the defense will be led by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, a California Republican who spoke out publicly against Trump in the days after the insurrection. and openly behind the scenes, according to call transcripts appearing in a new book by New York Times writers Alex Burns and Jonathan Martin. However, when it became clear that the insurrection would not destroy Trump’s popularity in the minds of Republican voters, McCarthy soon changed course. His willingness to present himself as Trump’s main supporter now shows how much influence the former president has over him after the furor over the recorded calls, and how his ambition to lead the House of Representatives and his staying in office if he finally wins the job, relies on a heavily to maintain the former president’s favor. Another Trump acolyte vowing to destroy the credibility of the Jan. 6 committee is Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York, a former moderate whose embrace of the big election lie put her on a fast track to power in the House GOP. “We will set the record straight. We will tell the truth to the American people, we will share the facts, and we will also point out how unprecedented, unconstitutional and illegitimate this commission is,” Stefanik told the right-wing website Breitbart in an interview. Her performance will reveal the incentives for power in the GOP and the compromises needed to retain Trump’s goodwill. Her role will also put her on the opposite side of the argument from the Wyoming lawmaker she replaced as House leader number three, Liz Cheney. The daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney broke with Trump over the insurrection and is one of two Republicans on the House Select Committee. She lost her leadership position in the party and now faces a primary challenge from a Trump-backed candidate because of her determination to tell the truth about the threat to American democracy posed then and now by the former president. Another key figure in Trump’s defense is likely to be Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio, who like McCarthy defied a subpoena to testify before the House select committee. The White House will keep a close eye on the Trump supporter as he will be one of the leading candidates to head the House Judiciary Committee if Republicans win control of the House, and he is likely to subject the Biden administration to a withering program. of investigations in the run-up to the 2024 election. All of this will be designed to hurt Biden and to boost Trump, who will be the real power behind the gavel in any House Republican majority and is already using that influence to his advantage. .