SURVEY. Presidential 2022: Emmanuel Macron in the lead ahead of Marine Le Pen, according to our barometer eight days from the second round – franceinfo

franceinfo would like to remind you that a poll is not a prediction, but a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment. A survey is necessarily accompanied by a margin of error, also called “margin of uncertainty” or “confidence interval”. The smaller the sample, the greater the margin of error. For more details, here is everything you need to know to decipher the polls. In the match between the two 2022 presidential candidates, it is Emmanuel Macron who leads the voting intentions in the second round ahead of Marine Le Pen, according to our daily Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for franceinfo and Le Parisien- Today in France, published Saturday April 16. Emmanuel Macron, president and candidate for his re-election, is credited with 55.5% of voting intentions in the second round (-0.5 point), against 44.5% for Marine Le Pen (+0.5 point), his competitor of the National Rally (RN). The margin of error is 3.3 points. At the end of the first week between two rounds, the evolution of vote transfers rather benefits Emmanuel Macron. Among Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s voters in the first round, 51% still do not express a choice: this proportion of undecided or supporters of abstention and the blank vote had risen to 56% during the last measurement. . The candidate they are most likely to vote for in the second round is Emmanuel Macron (33%, +5 points) ahead of Marine Le Pen (16%, stable). Among the voters of Yannick Jadot (Europe Ecologie-Les Verts), the unexpressed are 34%. 59% of voters in the first round indicate that the candidate for whom they are most likely to vote in the second round is Emmanuel Macron (+3 points), against 7% for Marine Le Pen (-4 points). Among the voters of Valérie Pécresse (Les Républicains) in the first round, 24% do not express a choice (-3 points compared to the previous measurement) and if they indicate that the candidate for whom they are most likely to to vote in the second round is Emmanuel Macron at 55%, they are now 21% (+2 points) to consider voting Marine Le Pen. As for the voters of Eric Zemmour (Reconquest!), it is still towards Marine Le Pen that the vast majority of them turn: 76% (-2 points). But this proportion is decreasing: on April 13, they were 81%. 9% plan to vote Emmanuel Macron. 15% express no choice. Either because they do not wish to respond, or because they have chosen abstention or a blank vote. Eight days before the second round of voting, 72% of French people questioned are sure that they will vote (range: between 70 and 74%). A figure slightly lower than the effective participation rate during the second round of the 2017 presidential election (74.6%). Of those who are certain to vote, 85% say they have made their choice and that it will be final, while 15% believe that their vote can still change. Few of Emmanuel Macron’s voters have doubts: 87% say their choice is final, 13% acknowledge that they can still change their minds. For Marine Le Pen, the convinced are 92%, the undecided are 8%. Among those who intend to travel on April 24 to vote blank or null, the proportion of those who are sure of their choice is rising sharply: they are 71% (it was 59% in the last measurement), 29% of them can still change their mind. Methodology. This barometer is produced for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Aujourd’hui in France until the second round of the presidential election and is based on the “rolling poll” methodology. Every day, about 500 people registered on the electoral lists are questioned. The results published on a daily basis systematically report the last three samples questioned, to obtain a reconstituted sample of approximately 1,500 people. This Ipsos-Sopra Steria poll for franceinfo and Le Parisien-Aujourd’hui in France published on April 16 is based on a total sample of 1,676 people registered on the electoral lists, constituting a representative sample of the French population aged 18. and more. The results presented show the accumulation of the interviews carried out over the last three days. The sample was questioned by Internet and was constituted according to the method of quotas (sex, age, profession of the person questioned, category of agglomeration, region).