Presidential poll: analysis of the campaign between the two rounds by Ifop

Exclusive. Ifop political scientist Jean-Philippe Dubrulle analyzes for Paris Match the first week of the campaign between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen. This Friday, the outgoing president still retains a seven-point lead over his rival from the National Rally. Marine Le Pen in the race: the noise of the votes National Rally At the end of a first round which saw, in the very last hours of the ballot, the mechanics of useful voting propel the trio Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, the second round duel promises to be as close as in last week’s measurements, without any “stunned” effect in the light of the results of the first round. In the second round, Emmanuel Macron would win with 53.5% of the vote, against 46.5% in favor of Marine Le Pen, a much more contested duel than in 2017 – and whose levels recall the Sarkozy confrontation – Royal of 2007 (53% vs 47%), which is further proof of the “normalization” of the Le Pen candidacy. In 2017, at the same time between the two rounds, and especially before the traditional televised debate, the president of the National Front was credited with 40% of the voting intentions, against 60% for the leader of En Marche. Barring an accident or exceptional mobilization of her opponents, Marine Le Pen therefore appears able to achieve the highest score for the far right in recent history, reinforced in this by the unprecedented reservoir of votes represented by the electorate. by Éric Zemmour (81% of whom would refer to the candidate of the Rassemblement National). Ban on the veil: Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen cultivate their differences Head of voting intentions for the second round, Emmanuel Macron remains in an uncomfortable position for two main reasons. The first is due to the exceptional “form” of her adversary: ​​credited with the highest level of voting for the far right under the Fifth Republic, Marine Le Pen above all appears to be more credible than the outgoing president in the fight against terrorism ( for 43%, 5 points ahead of Emmanuel Macron), against insecurity (53%, 25 points difference) and in terms of raising wages and purchasing power (42%, 8 points more). Defeating the cliché of the protest vote, its voters thus affirm for 56% of them that they will vote for Marine Le Pen above all to bring her to the Élysée rather than to “block” the outgoing president. Among the declared voters of Emmanuel Macron, this vote by membership emerges symbolically below, at 54%. What will follow after this Mélenchon advertisement and abstention, kingmakers? The candidates in the running for the second round have understood this well: although they appear to date favorable to Emmanuel Macron, the balance of power observed today remains fragile and the election could be played above all on the behavior of the voters of Jean-Luc Mélenchon – eliminated after achieving the best score of all his candidacies in the presidential election – and that of the abstainers; this is Emmanuel Macron’s second weakness in this between-two-rounds. We thus observe that the instruction “not a vote for Marine Le Pen” given by the “rebellious” leader does not carry completely, since 18% of his voters in the first round would vote for the candidate of the National Rally, against 33% for the president. outgoing and 49% tempted by abstention or a blank or null vote (an indicator that has been rising for three days). Similar trends measured among abstainers in the first round, with one in two (50%) who would remain offside, the others being divided equally between the two contenders for the Élysée. A week before the final verdict of the polls, the remaining candidates seem to be more spectators than actors in the outcome of their own duel. Read also: Mélenchon, defeat while singing