War in Ukraine: the German dilemma of delivering tanks to kyiv – FRANCE 24

The German government is divided on the question of delivering heavy weapons, such as tanks, to Ukraine to defend against the Russian invasion. The Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, is more than hesitant to respond to increasingly pressing requests from kyiv, which is doing everything to suggest that the outcome of the war depends above all on Berlin. The fate of Mariupol and the Donbass region would depend “on the delivery of German weapons that we can obtain” but do not come, lamented Oleksii Arestovitch, adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, on Wednesday April 13. A hell of pressure on Berlin, as a victory in eastern Ukraine is described as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s major new goal after his failure in Kyiv. The German president humiliatedEspecially that Oleksii Arestovitch is not the only one to point the finger at Germany. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenski did the same in an interview with the weekly Die Welt Am Sonntag on Sunday 10 April. “Germany is cold towards us,” he added. And Andriy Melnyk, the Ukrainian ambassador to Germany, does not miss an opportunity to ask Berlin for more weapons, even if it means entering into open conflict with Christine Lambrecht, the German Minister of Defence. Ukraine does not have, moreover, the monopoly of criticism against Berlin. Polish Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski tackled German hesitation, as did former Belgian Prime Minister Guy Verhofstadt, who said that as a “great democracy”, Germany should “lead by example”. And then there was the humiliation of Frank-Walter Steinmeier, the German president. The latter had announced his intention to go to kyiv before learning, on April 12, that the Ukrainian government had no intention of receiving him. This SPD cacique is, in fact, held partly responsible, by the Ukrainians, for Germany’s rather accommodating policy towards Russia, including after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 (he was twice Minister of Foreign Affairs of Angela Merkel). But above all, Volodymyr Zelenski does not want to be satisfied with an official whose power is above all symbolic. He hopes to meet Olaf Scholz. The German Chancellor has not been to kyiv since the beginning of the Ukrainian crisis, unlike several other Western leaders such as French President Emmanuel Macron, who made the trip to the Ukrainian capital in February or the British Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, last weekend. The Ukrainian president could believe that his demands had been heard, since Berlin had first let it be known on Wednesday that the head of the German government would quickly go to kyiv. In the end, nothing will happen… for now, the German Chancellery has decided. Olaf Scholz and Volodymyr Zelenski will therefore not have the opportunity, in the immediate future, to discuss “practical decisions” concerning the “delivery of heavy weapons”, as Oleksii Arestovitch hoped. ‘it’s about. kyiv is determined to put Berlin at the foot of its “Zeitenwende” – the “epochal change” for Germany announced by Olaf Scholz after the start of the war in Ukraine, and which implied a less pacifist position on the part of Berlin and the weapon supplies. Except that since this speech described as historic, the German Chancellor has been accused of dragging his feet, whether for the delivery of arms or for the establishment of the most severe economic sanctions such as the gas embargo and the Russian oil. Olaf Scholz has always repeated that Germany “delivers what it can and what is useful [à l’Ukraine]” in weapons. The fiasco of obsolete helmets and weapons So far, Berlin has authorized 186 million euros in the delivery of military equipment, according to figures from the Ministry of the Economy. But these shipments of equipment to Ukraine were more “tragi-comic” than really useful, underlines the daily Die Zeit. First there was the fiasco of sending 5,000 military helmets, which had been decided before the start of the war. Ukraine did not want them at the time, but, in addition, “they arrived after the start of the invasion, when the situation on the ground had changed completely, which made these equipment even less necessary”, continues the daily. The Minister of Defence, Christine Lamprecht, then decided to send anti-tank weapons and anti-aircraft defense devices. But she opted for material that was partly too old to be useful. The government has, in particular, delivered “Strela” anti-aircraft missiles, manufactured in 1968, which are too old to be fired safely, according to a report by the German army from November 2021. They should even have be destroyed in 2014. Volodymyr Zelenski hopes that Berlin will do better for the Battle of Donbass. He wants heavy weapons, which means, in particular, tanks. The pattern of fighting in eastern Ukraine is indeed expected to be very different from the failed campaign to take kyiv, says the Süddeutsche Zeitung. Russian forces are expected to deploy fewer aircraft and more tanks and infantry to surround the Ukrainian forces there. “These will be high-intensity clashes for which the Ukrainians will need above all tanks in order to be able to strike hard and be able to maneuver quickly”, specifies the daily. The Greens and the FDP for the sending of tanks to Ukraine This call for the sending of tanks has pushed the German government to the brink of internal crisis. The Greens and the Liberals of the FDP – the two partners of the SPD within the ruling coalition – are in favor of this delivery of heavy weapons. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Annalena Baerbock, even said that it was necessary to act quickly. Softly replied Olaf Scholz and Christine Lambrecht, both members of the SPD. The Minister of Defense claimed that there were no tanks in reserve. It would be necessary to use those who are already mobilized, which “would endanger German national security”, according to Christine Lambrecht. The German Chancellor, meanwhile, would not want to be the first to send offensive weapons to Ukraine. Until now, the countries that supported kyiv were content to reinforce Ukrainian defenses with anti-aircraft or anti-tank missiles. By sending tanks to Ukraine, Germany would take a much more active part in the conflict: “this would risk being perceived as an act of war by Russia which could drag the world into the Third World War world”, estimated the general Erich Vad, who was the military adviser of Angela Merkel, questioned by Die Welt.Olaf Scholz is thus trapped in his “Zeitenwende”. The Minister of Defense’s logistical apologies and warnings of the risk of escalation weigh little against the images of the horrors of war in Ukraine. A majority of Germans are in favor of delivering heavy weapons to Ukraine, according to a poll by the German statistical institute Forsa published on Tuesday. German arms manufacturers are also putting additional pressure on the government. The Rheinmetall group announced that it had about a hundred tanks that could be delivered quickly – in less than two months – to the Ukrainians. These are the Marder motorized combat vehicles, manufactured since the 1970s, and the Leopard 1, heavy tanks whose production dates back to the 1950s. This arms manufacturer even specified that it was an easy model to take in hand. A way to pull the rug out from under another argument of the SPD, according to which it was perhaps not wise to send tanks which the Ukrainian soldiers could not use before having been trained for months. The New York Times also questions the reality of the German commitment to do the maximum for Ukraine. With his planned trip to Ukraine, Olaf Scholz probably hoped to prove that one of the most important foreign policy changes in Europe – the abandonment of pacifism above all in Germany – was not just empty words. Despite these pressures from all sides, Olaf Scholz therefore decided, in the end, not to go to kyiv. But while “Berlin seems to think it has the time, Ukraine has none,” Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister, reminded his counterparts in NATO countries in early April.