Ukraine, the analyst: “From Putin it is no longer international politics”

The conflict for Ukraine “has already begun, it is part of the negotiation”. Russia is carrying out an operation in which “there is no break between war, politics and diplomacy: negotiation is in conflict and conflict is for negotiation”, a Western military source explains to Adnkronos. To understand the developments of these days, weeks and months “we need to put aside the logic of international politics”. And to think, he points out, of a group of terrorists hijacking an airplane and landing it in order to start negotiations. He carries on the conflict, killing one hostage at a time, and negotiates. “The ways in which the conflict is launched are instrumental for the development of the negotiation”. In this context, it is therefore wrong to think of a pause or suspension, a beginning or a stop of the conflict: “The plane has already been hijacked”. The reasons for the hijacker? Punishing alleged sins of passengers, and obtaining a ransom in political form from those who are not on board the plane but observe from the outside. Some of the hostages must be eliminated. It is necessary to impose violence on the hostages, in this case Ukraine. “And this violence must be visible,” he argues again. It is not even possible to kill all the hostages, because there would no longer be the possibility of asking the outside world what the hijacker has to ask. One hostage is then liquidated and the more visible the scene, the greater the weight. “The negotiation is already underway” and politicians ranging from Putin to Moscow “have not understood that in this context, this type of negotiation is useless”. It is like someone who brings food to feed the hostages. Putin’s political call to NATO and the United States for binding security guarantees in Europe may indeed be what the Russian president wants. But at the same time, and this will be the military action, it will use violence against the Ukrainians, destabilizing the country (and this has been going on since 2014), with new actions, the annexation of Crimea, the stop of coal supplies, cyber attacks , operations in the Donbass, other military actions. The Ukrainians have already begun to say, ‘it is not we who bombed in the Donbass, it is you who have not respected the agreements “, which is already a reversal of the relationship between guilty and victim typical of terrorist crises.” A fake is no longer needed. movie. A false flag operation. What matters is the logic with which a terrorist group behaves that holds a large group of people hostage with a punitive intent. And the punitive nature of Putin’s intentions is demonstrated, for example, by the long article from July 2021 in which he argues that Ukraine is not a country (“On historical unity between Russians and Ukrainians”) or the sentence with the prisoners’ song in ode to rape, delivered in the joint press conference with Emmanuel Macron (Like it or not, it’s your duty, beauty “) The crisis” cannot be resolved with the first execution. It takes pauses between one act of violence and another. Then as it is imparted, it is military technique in the strict sense. Due to the anomalous nature of this situation, negotiators specialized in the logic of kidnappings, more experts in psychology than in defense, should take the field. But when would Putin’s transition to this new phase of suspension of international politics take place? It is hypothesized that it may have occurred in the long months of self-isolation that imposed itself during the first epidemic wave. Added to the extension of his period in power, with the same interlocutors for years now. With the addiction, of the Russian leadership and of the Russians, to the loss (in one year the Russian population decreased by one million people, 600 thousand of whom died from covid). “What matters is that the decision-making structure of the West is wholly unprepared to deal with this type of crisis. The moment the violence arrives, hostages will begin to be killed, adds the analyst carrying out his metaphor, Westerners. They will divide. The violence will normalize little by little, and the threshold of the ‘negotiation’ will be shifted more and more, in the direction in which the kidnapper wants. But what has been the leap in these months? “They put the sandbags around the plane so that snipers can’t shoot, “he says.