Portugal ready to turn the page on the union of the left – Le Monde

Will Portugal go from geringonca, the “bidule”, as the union of the left has been nicknamed, which allowed the socialist Antonio Costa to govern for six years, to a gentlemen’s agreement between the leaders of the two main centrist parties, the Socialist Party (PS) and the Social Democratic Party (PSD, centre-right) of Rui Rio? Through such an agreement, the two parties would undertake to facilitate the governance of the country for the party that came out on top in the early legislative elections on Sunday 30 January. While the Portuguese must elect the 230 deputies of the Assembly of the Republic, this possibility has gained strength, as the two candidates have reduced their gap.

Credited with nearly 40% of the vote in November 2021, far ahead of the PSD, then at 26%, the PS initially hoped to broaden its base and win an absolute majority which would leave it with a free hand to govern alone. The campaign was a game-changer and the two parties are now neck and neck in the latest polls, getting each between 35% and 36% of the voting intentions. The risks of instability of the next government have therefore monopolized a large part of the debate, if only because there is an urgency to implement the European recovery plans of 16.6 billion euros.

On the left, the geringonca seems to have lived. In October 2021, the decision of the radical left party Bloco and the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) to vote with the right against the finance bill – they criticized its lack of ambition in terms of public spending and social measures – not only rushed the early elections, but it showed the limits of an alliance between various left-wing parties, yet presented a few months earlier as an example of success in Europe. A mirage ? “In 2015, the ‘geringonça’ was only possible because Portugal was going through an exceptional momentsays political analyst Patricia Lisa. We had just experienced a deep economic and social crisis, aggravated by austerity policies, and there was a great need to regain hope. The Communists had abandoned their most rigid positions for this, but after their setback in the 2020 municipal elections, political agendas have become more radical. »

The rise of the far right

For Bloco leader Catarina Martins, however, the union of the lefts is not dead, provided there is “a written legislature agreement” as in 2015. After the 2019 elections, Mr. Costa, only eight seats from an absolute majority, had indeed not taken care to negotiate new legislative agreements with the far left, hoping to obtain their support in case per case. Difficult, however, to see how to resuscitate the “geringonca”. Burned, the Portuguese Prime Minister kept repeating during the campaign that “without a stable majority, we will go from crisis to crisis”, calling on voters to give him an absolute majority. As a possible ally, he now looks more towards the animalist party PAN and Livre (“free”, alternative left).

You have 50.16% of this article left to read. The following is for subscribers only.