Car prices are skyrocketing and won’t stop

(CNN Business) – Car dealership lots have only a fraction of the vehicles, both new and used, that they normally own. That is helping drive prices to record highs and increase the rate of inflation general of the country.

And the price increases are not over yet.

The average price of a new car hit a record $ 38,255 in May, according to JD Power, up 12% from the same period a year ago.

About two-thirds of car buyers paid within 5% of the sticker price in May, and some even they paid over the label.

Wholesale prices for used cars Sold at auction are up 39% since the beginning of this year, according to other data from JD Power. Used car retail prices were up 20%, that’s more modest in the same period. But it’s also a significant jump for this time of year, with higher wholesale prices pointing to bigger increases along the way.

“That puts used car wholesale prices at the highest level they’ve ever been,” said David Paris of JD Power. “And we are seeing used retail prices accelerating rapidly.”

The economic rebound in the US has raised the consumer prices at the fastest pace in nearly 13 years, and used car prices were responsible for a third of the overall 5% increase in May.

It’s a 180-degree change in the market from a year ago, when many car dealerships were closed due to the pandemic or limited to providing service and maintenance. Massive job losses and the shift to working from home led to a 30% drop in car sales, in the second quarter of 2020, the biggest quarterly decline since the Great Recession.

Now sales are booming, with the seasonally adjusted sales rate for May for new car sales to consumers increasing 34% compared to the previous year, and 10.6% compared to the month of sales plus normal May 2019.

Supply chain problems

But the resurgent demand comes at a time when automotive plants around the world are closed or operating with reduced production due to the shortage of computer chips . New car production in North America fell by about 3.4 million vehicles in the first three months of this year, according to Cox Automotive. And most automakers reported second-quarter production declining even more than in the first quarter.

The used car market is just as tight, with some supply and demand measures in the sector showing the largest shortage on record.

Those two factors, strong sales and limited supply, are fueling the price boom.

“It’s a perfect storm,” said Charlie Chesbrough, a senior economist at Cox Automotive. “If you are not willing to pay almost the price tag, there is someone behind you who is. These problems will probably be with us for at least the rest of this year.

Here’s a look at the main factors leading to the price increase:

Limited resources

The shortage of computer chips is just one factor that reduces the inventory of available vehicles. Other auto parts, including tires and resins, are beginning to be in short supply, experts say.

The limit on the availability of new cars is being felt in the used car market. Car rental companies, which sold about a third of their fleets last year to raise cash and survive the recession, they now have your own car shortage just when travel is on the mend.

The chip shortage also means automakers don’t have an oversupply of new cars that they can sell to rental companies at a discount.

“The [empresas de alquiler de coches] they typically buy 2 million vehicles a year, and that’s the number of cars they typically sell on the market, “said Ivan Drury, Senior Director of Information at Edmunds.com. “Since automakers can’t sell to them right now, that one and two year vehicle turnover just isn’t happening right now.”

People returning to work

As offices reopen, workers who had stayed at home are beginning to resume commuting, further driving demand for cars.

Employers added 559,000 jobs in May, but that’s only part of the story. Other employers are notifying workers that offices that have been closed since last year will reopen in the next few months.

Many of those who delayed buying new cars due to job uncertainty or lack of a commute are now looking to buy. And some of those who took public transportation to and from work may now want their own car to limit their potential exposure to COVID-19.

“People who are concerned about public transportation and Uber are a factor in the growing interest,” said Nick Woolard, director of Industry Analysis for TrueCar.

More cash available, low interest rates

Many workers lost their jobs and faced economic setbacks in the past year. But those who kept their jobs may have more cash available than normal. By some estimates, Americans have savings additional $ 2.4 trillion, compared to a year ago.

Spending on activities like vacations and dining out fell, as did the cost of commuting. The values market record of Values ​​often fuel strong car sales as well, as the wealth effect leads consumers to save less money for long-term savings.

And then there were the various stimulus payments from the Government, which totaled thousands of dollars for many households.

Low interest rates allow many buyers to spend less on car payments than they would have otherwise. And the rise of home refinancing In the past year, it cut mortgage payments by the millions, sometimes enough to budget for a car where it hadn’t before.

A move away from cheaper cars

Part of what drives new car prices up is what consumers want to buy now. The shift from less expensive sedans to more expensive SUVs and trucks accelerated even before the pandemic.

Automakers are responding by cutting production on their less popular models to preserve the computer chips they have available for SUVs and trucks, although even those models are experiencing a decline. reduced production.

Many new car buyers are also drawn to the next generation of options.

“People can’t buy enough content when they pull the trigger on new vehicles,” Drury said. “They are buying high levels of equipment and many options. For certain trucks, they are paying double the label price of the base model, just for the options.

Dealers, not automakers, are the big winners

Automakers are benefiting because they don’t have to offer many incentives. Still, the shortage of supply is hurting its results. Ford and General Motors expect chip shortages to cost more than $ 1 billion in earnings this year.

The big winners: the car dealers. That includes the thousands of private dealerships, as well as publicly traded AutoNation, which specializes in new cars, and CarMax, which focuses on used cars. AutoNation posted record first-quarter earnings in April, tripling its earnings from the prior year.

“This is a near perfect operating environment for being a car dealership,” said Ali Faghri, an analyst at Guggenheim Securities, which follows auto retailers. “The demand is incredibly robust, you have several tailwinds that have all converged at the same time. You are not only selling a lot of cars at the moment, but with record margins.

Even with automakers hit by chip shortages, the industry has roared back to a level that was inconceivable a year ago.

“If I had told you 12 months ago that we would be in this situation, with record vehicle sales and prices, you would never have believed me,” Faghri said. “It developed very differently than most of the people expected when the pandemic first hit.

One potential downside for the industry is that prices could eventually become prohibitively high, discouraging buyers.

The University of Michigan Consumer Survey found that more consumers are concerned about rising prices for homes, vehicles, and durable household goods than at any time in decades.

“These unfavorable market price perceptions reduced overall car and home buying attitudes to their lowest point since 1982,” said Richard Curtin, chief economist of the survey.