The geomagnetic storm expected next night has not yet occurred. Probably our planet was hit by the edge of a coronal cloud, which brings aurora borealis to Scandinavia, while conditions in Slovakia are deteriorating.
On Thursday evening, a large solar flare occurred in the Sun. The sun is becoming more and more active and is currently in its 11-year cycle in which solar flares will increase until 2024-2025. During Thursday’s eruption, which was one of the stronger ones, the Sun ejected a cloud of coronal plasma, which headed for the Earth.
This cloud was supposed to reach our planet during this night, but according to the latest measurements and data, it hit our planet coronal mass only by its edge.
The growth of the Earth’s magnetic field
In order for a geomagnetic storm to form on Earth, which, incidentally, was predicted to be relatively strong tonight, category G3, several conditions must be met.
A strong solar flare must occur, which will release the coronal mass, which must then head towards the Earth. This also happened and this cloud with a speed of about 800 km / s began to move towards the Earth. Although these conditions have been met, this does not guarantee that a geomagnetic storm and the associated aurora will occur.
At a distance of 1.5 million km from Earth is the ACE probe, which is extremely important to us. It monitors the speed of the solar wind and other important parameters. This probe is the first to inform us on Earththat a cloud of coronal mass is approaching, which can cause a geomagnetic storm and aurora borealis. As soon as this cloud reaches the probe, so be it in about 30-60 minutes a geomagnetic storm starts to occur if aurora borealis occurs.
However, current data suggest that there is no significant change in the solar wind. If this happens, the speed will suddenly increase from about 330 km / s to about 800 km / s. The current speed of the solar wind is around 380 km / s. There is an obvious upward trend, but that is not enough for the aurora borealis in Slovakia.
apparently only the edge of the coronal cloud has arrived, as indicated by the data, source: NOAA
The aurora borealis will probably not occur in Slovakia
There are two possible causes. Apparently, our planet probably only hit the edge of the coronal mass, which was reflected in the above-mentioned data. However, this is not enough for the occurrence of aurora borealis in our latitudes, including Slovakia. The second possibility is that the arrival of coronal mass was delayed more than originally expected.
It is not excluded that the situation will change during the night hours and there will be a more significant increase in the solar wind and aurora borealis could also appear in Slovakia, but there is one problem that worsens the possible visibility of aurora borealis and it represents the Moon. It starts to come out at 00:07 and significantly worsens the conditions for observation. It will be very difficult or impossible to see the aurora borealis from Slovakia.
Based on current data, aurora borealis can occur in Scandinavia, Scotland, Greenland, Iceland, or Russia.
The aurora borealis is currently occurring in Finland, for example, which you can watch live.