Mathematician Kollár: The date when the third wave will peak! He sends Slovaks to the cinema, THIS is the reason – Topky

The current epidemic situation shows that the delta wave has hit in full force and the low vaccination rate of the population in Slovakia is a problem. As of today, we have 10 black districts, namely districts of Bardejov, Čadca, Kysucké Nové Mesto, Levoča, Michalovce, Sabinov, Stará Ľubovňa, Stropkov, Svidník and the district of Tvrdošín.

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They contain the strictest measures, which will also affect the vaccinated population. The map of the COVID vending machine is colored in burgundy, with 30 districts in this color, 27 districts in red and 12 in orange, especially in the west of Slovakia. There is also the first red district near Bratislava – the Senec district.

When will the peak of the pandemic come?

The mathematician Richard Kollár looked at when our pandemic situation would be at its peak. He pointed out that before the start of the wave, experts estimated that about 700,000 people would become infected without immunization during the fall – that is, they had not been vaccinated or had yet survived the coronavirus. According to Kollár, this estimate was based on the fact that many children become infected in schools, while every fourth to fifth of his close contact will have a positive test from a sick classmate.

“Suppose that approx. half of these people become infected during the growth phase of the wave. However, these people make up only approx. 70% of those infected, and therefore we estimate that during the growth of this wave, a total of approx. 500 000,” Kollár points out that the given estimate is extremely realistic. He pointed to the waveforms in other countries, with half a million infected reaching the peak of the pandemic. “In total, in this estimate, approximately one million people in Slovakia are infected in this wave, which is approximately 18% of the population, ie approximately every fifth and fifth, many in your area. Among them will be a few hundred thousand fully vaccinated, “ said the mathematician.

He also pointed out another interesting fact – while so far we have reached a number of hundreds of positives in the combined incidence, this number will be doubled according to Kollár. This is because PCR tests are estimated to detect only half of those infected in countries with a reasonable level of testing, such as ours. Due to this, he estimates that we have already had 200,000 infected in this wave so far.

He added that the combined incidence is an estimate of how many people would test positive from the test sample on the day they were tested by the PCR test or the antigen test. In addition, Kollár also pointed out that the dynamics of growth in our country has been accelerating in recent weeks, while it is allegedly very difficult to estimate whether it is a longer-term trend or just a short-term deviation.

Source: gettyimages.com

“It is very roughly possible to estimate that the peak of the Slovak wave will not be so soon, probably only at the end of November, or even the beginning of December. We still have a relatively steep growth ahead of us, although the daily reported numbers would no longer have to reach twice those of today – especially in the antigenic component of the incidence. However, it is also bad for an epidemic if they remain at a high level for a longer period of time. “ Kollár explained his concerns.

Other problems?

In addition, the next two weeks will be some weeks of truth – due to the evolution of the hospitalization trend. If there was an acceleration, ie an acceleration of growth dynamics, in the income of COVID patients, that would be bad news for us. However, for the time being, according to Kollar, hospitalizations and patient connections to artificial lung ventilation do not appear to deviate from the delayed incidence trend. However, he pointed to another strange fact – and that is the rate of hospitalization at the JIS.

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“They are growing more slowly than a week than other types of hospitalizations. Something is going on there and I just hope that it is not insufficient capacity, but rather that COVID patients do not need JIS beds. So far, during the pandemic in our country (since these numbers have been reported), these data did not differ significantly in this way. “ he pointed out that if someone has an explanation for this phenomenon, let them make it clear.

However, he asked people to postpone weddings, celebrations, dances and similar parties, because any major socialization is currently inappropriate. On the contrary, he sent Slovaks to the cinema, for example, and they watched a new film. “To the best of my knowledge, no major epidemic cluster has been reported in the world at film screenings. At the celebrations, however, they arise in large numbers every day, “ concluded.