Electricity: between nuclear and renewable energies, six scenarios for 2050 – archyde

It is an understatement to say that this work was expected, and that it will be commented on. The national manager of the Electricity Transmission Network (RTE) publishes, Monday, October 25, the main lessons of a vast study aimed at defining the future of the French electricity system. Launched in 2019 at the request of the government, this forward-looking exercise entitled “Energy Futures 2050” sets out six scenarios that are supposed to make it possible to achieve carbon neutrality within thirty years, and therefore to fight against climate change.

For the country’s future electricity production, the various trajectories range from a “100% renewable energy” option to another with another 50% nuclear. Each time, the company RTE, majority-owned by EDF and the Caisse des Dépôts, describes the technical feasibility conditions, but also the cost and the expected impact for the environment and for society. In addition to this first report of some 600 pages, the full result of the modeling should be made public in early 2022.

RTE hopes to contribute to a debate that is “as informed and as documented as possible”

Published six months before the presidential election, this study should weigh heavily in the political debate. In the context of an aging nuclear fleet, France, and therefore the contenders for the Elysee Palace, is faced with an important choice: to replace certain end-of-life reactors with new ones, or to bet everything on the development of renewable energies. If most of the candidates have already spoken on their desire to revive, or not, the atomic sector, Emmanuel Macron should take a position in the coming weeks, knowing that the president declared, on October 12, during the presentation of the France 2030 plan, which the country has “Still need this technology”, Very little carbon dioxide emitter but disputed in particular because of the radioactive waste it generates.

RTE, for its part, hopes to contribute to a debate “As enlightened and as documented as possible”. “There is an urgent need to mobilize and choose an orientation, underlines Xavier Piechaczyk, the chairman of the management board. We are in a race against time to respond to the climate crisis. All the scenarios require considerable investments on which it is time to take an option. “

• Two prerequisites: security of supply and carbon neutrality

Each of the six scenarios presented meets two prerequisites. First, to ensure the security of supply of the French electricity system. The model used by RTE simulates the balance between consumption and production every hour of every day and of every year for thirty years, while taking into account meteorological criteria. “Certain scenarios are more demanding or more uncertain, but all of them guarantee us exactly the same security of supply as today”, insists Mr. Piechaczyk.

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