ANALYSIS | How the West Created the Most Dangerous Version of Putin

(CNN) – For the past decade, Vladimir Putin’s resurgent Russia has been a perpetual concern for many in the West.

These concerns are not unfounded. Putin and the president’s inner circle have undeniably gained confidence during this period. Whether to annex parts of another nation, back a dictator in a foreign war, or poison dissidents on Russian soil, Putin’s Kremlin apparently no longer seeks validation from a West that has allowed Moscow’s belligerence to grow with little. effect on their behavior.

In recent weeks the world has remembered Russia’s confidence. As gas prices soar in Europe due to a reduced supply of Russian gas and as Putin cuts his nation’s loose diplomatic ties with NATO, it is worth examining how seriously Western politicians have misunderstood Putin and ignored his. willingness to use the weapons at your disposal.

The European energy crisis reveals a very powerful tool that provides Russia with leverage in its relationship with Europe: its gas reserves.

It is no secret that many European countries, including Germany, depend on the Russian supply of natural gas. Recent shortages have impacted not only economic but geopolitical risks of this dependency.

While Russia is meeting its existing obligations to supply European countries, analysts say it could increase exports to allow for warehousing before what could be a cold winter, thereby lowering costs and calming nerves.

The question from the Russian perspective is, why should we do it? Moscow is still awaiting German regulatory approval for Nord Stream 2, a controversial gas pipeline that would connect Russia with Germany and supply large amounts of gas to Western Europe. “If the German regulator gives its authorization tomorrow, supplies of 17.5 billion cubic meters will start the day after tomorrow,” Putin told a televised forum on Thursday, blaming the EU’s energy policy for the recent gas crisis and high prices. Reuters reported.

The pipeline is controversial because many see it as a project of geopolitical influence for Moscow, a fear that was not lessened when Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said earlier this month that “the early completion of certification” for Nord Stream 2 would help “cool down the current situation.”

Aside from the financial and geopolitical advantages that could come from Europe’s dependence on Russian gas, it also helps to form part of an internal political narrative that has evolved over time in Russia: The West continues to do the wrong thing.

“The basis of this narrative is that Europe and the West need to rethink their broken policies, be it in energy, foreign intervention or nation building,” says Oleg Ignatov, senior analyst at the Crisis Group in Russia.

“Ten years ago, this argument was more defensive, as the Kremlin wanted to protect itself from criticism from Western governments or NGOs. But now Russia can argue that Western policies failed in both Libya, Syria and now Afghanistan and that the approach of Russia has been the right one all along, “he adds.

Western failure and Russian success are, of course, relative to the priorities of each party. Putin has called the fall of the Soviet Union the “greatest geopolitical tragedy” of the 20th century.

When you factor this into much of Putin’s behavior over the past decade – annexing Crimea, criticizing the West for military action in Syria by denying Russia’s activity, creating tensions between NATO and Turkey – it’s easy to build a picture. of a leader trying to restore pride to his country and who is very happy to seize the opportunities offered by his naive global counterparts.

“Since the end of the Cold War, many in Putin’s generation have believed that he was still in a political war with the West,” says Mark Galeotti, honorary professor at University College London, currently based in Moscow.

“This was exacerbated after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and that is why we now see a more comfortable Russia putting troops across international borders, spreading disinformation and going after political dissidents. As far as they are concerned, they are on their feet. of war, “says Galeotti, before adding that” for the West, however, Russia is extremely annoying, but in reality it is not a great threat. “

Some argue that Putin’s relatively limited threat has generated a mediocre Western policy in the face of Russian aggression. This, in turn, has meant that the Russian president can carry out hostile acts with very little consequence.

The logic is something like this. Russian agents poisoning a former Russian spy on British soil is, of course, sinister and threatening. However, he poses little real threat to the UK, but going beyond imposing sanctions on people close to Putin could be more complicated than it is worth.

This, potentially, is in Putin’s hands, as it allows him to manipulate these events as proof that he is a strong and untouchable man confronting the West, a topic he was enthusiastic about in a speech at the annual Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi. Thursday night where he criticized the United States for the “mess” it created in Afghanistan.

“The long-term failure of the West has been to treat each hostile act as an isolated incident, rather than seeing the general pattern of a Russia that has no desire or interest in following its rules,” says Keir Giles, principal investigator at Chatham. House and author of the forthcoming book “How Russia Get Its Way.”

This, Giles argues, is at the heart of everything that is happening right now.

“Russia is becoming more open and direct. When Russia exploits the gas crisis in Europe to force its Nord Stream gas pipeline project, or cuts all remaining ties with NATO, it is done openly and there is no longer any pretense that Moscow is working to achieve good relations with the West. It is the same pattern that we see domestically within Russia: the increase in repression is now evident and is accelerating, because the Kremlin no longer cares. “

The limited consequences for the West, of course, provide little comfort to opponents of Putin inside and outside Russia.

“Putin is an opportunist. Disunity from NATO is the greatest gift he can receive,” says Riho Terras, former commander of the Estonian Defense Forces. “German dependence on Russian gas is a problem for those of us who share a border as it undermines unity. Brexit could be good for the UK, but it raises the question of a European military that would obviously be weaker than the UK. NATO”.

Some believe Putin’s greatest asset has been hysteria and exaggeration of the threat he poses somewhere in the West, combined with limited pushback from powerful nations, including the United States, for his sincere hostility.

“Whenever an opportunity appears, he will seize it. It happened in Ukraine, it happened in Georgia. He only understands the strong messages and if we continue to show disunity, he will respond in kind. He is a street fighter. The West is trying to skate for Russia, but Putin plays ice hockey, “says Terras.

Opposition figures in Russia believe the West can take steps that could weaken Putin’s position.

“Personal sanctions against people close to Putin, who are involved in corruption and human rights abuse, will go a long way toward achieving this goal,” says Vladimir Ashurkov, an opposition politician and CEO of the Anti-Corruption Foundation. of the leader of the opposition Alexey Navalny.

However, the myth that has been fueled by Western confusion and inaction about who exactly Putin is and what he wants, has somehow contributed to creating a domestic colossus that can increasingly act with impunity in a way that only serves to feed the myth that surrounds him in Russia.

Despite all the Russian hysteria over the past decade, it could be that the West’s reluctance to really understand Putin has helped create the most dangerous version of the man he was ever possible to be.