Epidemiologist Pavelka: The peak of the third wave of coronavirus will NOT be! However, we will feel it until April – Topky.sk

Epidemiologist Martin Pavelka, who is the main author of the COVID automaton, says that it is demonstrably helping, but there is no other way than vaccination. While everyone is waiting for the peak of the third wave, which according to the forecasts of the Ministry of Health is moving, he claims that he will not even come. Why?

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The peak of the third wave will not be

“Since the beginning of the epidemic, I have argued against optimistic views that pointed to the peak of the third wave in October as incompatible with any epidemiological theory.” he said for Topka. Initially, experts from the ministry, as well as many others, predicted that the peak would come in October. According to the latest forecasts, it will come in November and the hospital will not have peace this Christmas either.

The third wave will not have a peak. “But its intensity will last until March or April 2022. In short, the reason is the low penetration and vaccination of the population. At the same time, the effect of inducing immunity (decrease in the effectiveness of vaccines over time, note red.) will cause the reservoir of susceptible people (able to become infected again) to be gradually replenished and the virus will thus be able to remain in an endemic state for a long time, ” he said.

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Although the effectiveness of the vaccines is declining, it still offers excellent protection against the severe course and risk of death, even six months after the second dose. “No peak of the epidemic will take place at the end of October, and we can peacefully cancel the planned celebrations,” said the epidemiologist.

The peak spreads in autumn, winter and spring

“As a result, this peak will spread just like last year for the whole of autumn, winter and spring. In other words, we will have a long and difficult third epidemic wave, which in total numbers can easily compete with the previous epidemic wave,” stated. Pavelka talks about false hopes in connection with the peak of the third wave. Giving space to unfair opinions is toxic, he said. “As a result, people still don’t feel the need to protect themselves from the new coronavirus,” said Pavelka.

COVID vending machine helps

The epidemiological situation is helped by the COVID automat. Without it, the number of cases would have grown significantly faster. Therefore, growth retardation is not related to approach to collective immunity or peak, but to the COVID automaton. “If we canceled the machine, the effective reproduction number would jump back to its original value of 1.50 and the epidemic would continue to grow uncontrollably. “ notes that the epidemiologist states that it is clear from the May study of Professor Pavel Jarčuška that we are still very little overwhelmed.

However, the most important factor is the vaccination of the population. And it is low in Slovakia. We currently have about 45 percent of the population vaccinated, which is about half of the calculated limit of collective immunity in the delta variant environment – 83 to 89%.

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“One way to deal with the decrease in the effect of vaccines over time is to give a third dose. Studies show an extremely large (8- to 10-fold) increase in blood antibodies two weeks after the third dose.” stated and at the same time invited all people in the risk group to be vaccinated with the third dose and at the same time assures them that thanks to it they can really survive the winter without fear and fear of coronavirus.

Vaccination is important

According to him, the only way is vaccination. “After October, however, November comes, then Christmas and suddenly we find ourselves in the hospital, where they tell us that it is too late to give the vaccine and that this needs to be considered before the third wave picks up speed for our body to build enough. immunity, ” stated.

According to him, the character and approximate total load of the third wave can be assumed, but the specific numbers that await us in a given month are no longer. According to him, accurate numerical estimates for a period longer than a few weeks cannot be made with any mathematical model. “Any attempt to predict the exact number of new infections by months, weeks or days in advance has always failed,” stated.

The theses are correct, government measures and people’s behavior are changing

However, the key theses may not be bad, but the reality and their actual form will be prevented by a change in behavior in the population or by restrictive measures taken by the government to slow the spread of the virus. According to him, a clear example is the mathematical model of Martin Smatana, which caused an unprecedented society-wide debate in Slovakia at that time and on the basis of which the then IZP predicted several million infections.

“Smatana’s model was good and correct. It was more or less similar to the model of Neil Ferguson, on the basis of which the United Kingdom declared a nationwide lockdown in March 2020. we have not created an environment where it can spread freely, and therefore Slovakia has not experienced the epidemic wave we have seen in other countries, ” Pavelka explained.

Changing the COVID of the automaton would probably bring system overload at the moment

Changing the COVID machine in the current situation would most likely cause an overload of the health system in Slovakia. He would not be able to provide adequate health care for all citizens. The members of the expert council agreed.

In the common position, they stated that the aim of anti-pandemic measures is not to limit, but to protect people’s lives and maintain a functioning health system. “At the same time, the COVID vending machine creates clearly defined rules that help anticipate measures in each phase of a pandemic. explained.

They explained that at the time the material was being made, it was assumed that at least 65 percent of the vulnerable population would be vaccinated in each district at the time of available vaccination, so that strict measures defined in black would not be necessary. They stated that vaccination coverage in Slovakia is currently low.

They also perceive that vaccinated people in the black districts do not get the freedom they expected. They pointed out that by being vaccinated, these people were protected from the infection and, in particular, by the severe course and death of COVID-19. “The low vaccination rate of the population leads to the uncontrolled spread of the virus. By changing the COVID machine, we would contribute to increased mobility, faster spread of infection and thus overloading hospitals, which we cannot afford in the current situation. and positively influence the color of the district, ” they added that vaccination is the only tool that allows the pandemic of the new coronavirus to be held “firmly in the hands”.