Six months before the first round of the 2022 presidential election, the political landscape has never been so fragmented. This is the main lesson of the second wave of the electoral survey carried out by Ipsos-Sopra Steria in partnership with the Center d’études de la vie politique française de Sciences Po (Cevipof) and the Jean-Jaurès Foundation for The world. The strength of this panel is its amplitude since the sample used is 16,228 people. Voting intentions are calculated from respondents “Some going to vote having expressed an intention to vote” (between 8,541 and 8,888, depending on the different hypotheses studied). Result: the margins of error are very low, between 0.2 and 0.9 points.
While the previous wave, in April, showed a political world dominated by the expected duel between Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen, six months later, everything has changed. Admittedly, the outgoing president still seems firmly anchored, with about a quarter of the votes, whatever the scenario (depending on the right-wing candidate who will be appointed in December and the candidacy or not of Eric Zemmour).
But the dynamic around the former journalist of the Figaro – which is still not officially declared in the race for the Elysée – reshuffles the cards. First to the far right since Mr. Zemmour is on a par with Marine Le Pen (both around 16% of voting intentions) but also for all oppositions. Indeed, the division of the nationalist camp around two candidates has a mechanical effect: lowering the level of the “entry ticket” in the second round. While in April it was around 25%, it is now around 16%. The game is open like never before and each of the underdogs hopes to take advantage of it to get out of the game, the right in the first place.
Qualification out of reach
In opposition for ten years, the Republicans (LR) party must appoint, at a congress on December 4, who will represent it. The investigation tested the three main contenders for the nomination, Xavier Bertrand, Valérie Pécresse and Michel Barnier. Between these three personalities, it is the president of Hauts-de-France who could hope to obtain a qualifying place: he would collect between 12.3% and 13.7%, taking into account the margin of error. Mr. Bertrand distances his competitors since Valérie Pécresse would obtain between 9.4% and 10.6% and Michel Barnier, between 8.4% and 9.6%.
In the hypothesis – increasingly improbable – of a non-candidacy of Eric Zemmour, the votes for one of these three candidates would oscillate between 11.3% and 16.8% of the votes. But in these scenarios, qualification would remain largely out of reach since Marine Le Pen would obtain between 23.1% and 25.9% of the vote, arriving behind Emmanuel Macron (between 25.1% and 29%, depending on which right-wing candidate designed).
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