2022 presidential poll: the right is still far from interfering in the second round match

They avoided the worst: Xavier Bertrand having in extremis accepted to put its future in the hands of party members , The Republicans will have, except for a huge surprise, only one standard bearer in the next presidential election. But the essential remains to be done. Twenty weeks before the election, the right is struggling to interfere in the battle for the second round, according to PrésiTrack, the OpinionWay barometer for “Les Echos”, Classic Radio and Cnews.

In the probable hypothesis where the polemicist would be a candidate, Xavier Bertrand today only collects 12% of voters’ voting intentions (with a turnout estimated at nearly 70%). Neck-to-neck with the polemicist (13%) but far from Emmanuel Macron (at 25%) and Marine Le Pen (at 18%). Too far, in any case, to play the final. Valerie Pécresse and Michel barnier would do even less well, with barely 8% of the vote. Without Eric Zemmour , this time, Xavier Bertrand obtains 13%, against… 26% for the candidate of the RN and for the outgoing head of state. No other candidate would wait for the 10%.

“For now, the right is not in the game,” summarizes Bruno Jeanbart, vice-president of the OpinionWay institute. According to him, the situation, paradoxically, could “above all do the business of Michel barnier », Best placed with LR members who appreciate that he has never left the party. “As Xavier Bertrand does not appear in a position to qualify, the polls are not necessarily the criterion which will count the most in the eyes of the activists”.

“Thorn in the side”

Even if it lowers the qualification threshold for the second round, the surge Eric Zemmour, champion of the conspiracy theory of the “great replacement”, is not only “a thorn in the side” of Marine Le Pen. It also threatens to capture potential right-wing voters, which it badly needs in 2022. Nearly 24% of François Fillon voters in the first round of the last presidential election and 22% of those who still say they are LR sympathizers would vote today ‘ hui for Eric Zemmour. A month ago, they were only 11% and 18%, respectively.

This photograph of public opinion obviously does not predict the outcome of the battle – especially since the debates can change the outlook of the French. But it illustrates the horrors of a political family which is the only one that does not have its champion. LR suffers from being self-centered on his internal battle while the others candidates, declared or not , are aimed at the French. “The designation of its candidate is not at all a subject for the French. It is a difficulty. It reinforces today, in public opinion, the fact that it has no candidate, ”analyzes Bruno Jeanbart. Many elected officials of LR are also worried about this ” wasted time “ .

Another difficulty lies in the rise of economic and social themes, which are more than ever at the top of the list of concerns. This is, according to OpinionWay, “a fairly strong sign of the fragility of Eric Zemmour’s breakthrough” since “the gap is likely to be more and more between his campaign themes and the dominant subjects in the electorate”. But by running behind the polemicist on immigration issues, the right also runs the risk of not being audible on the purchasing power .

“The success of Nicolas Sarkozy in 2007 was made on two legs,” recalls Bruno Jeanbart, who warns: “The question will be whether the future winner of the congress will be able to create a real dynamic. But the space being even more occupied since the breakthrough of Eric Zemmour, it is not at all certain ”.

Study carried out from October 18 to 20, 2021, with a sample of 1,035 people, according to the quota method (margins of uncertainty: 1.6 to 3.2 points at most). Find here all the results .