Libya: the return of a Gaddafi to power, a simple matter of time?

Ten years ago to the day, on October 20, 2011, Colonel Muammar Gaddadfi, the whimsical and cruel dictator who reigned supreme over Libya for forty-two years, was captured by insurgents, then announced dead, in circumstances remained murky in his region of origin.

In his fall, caused by a popular revolt which turned into an international armed conflict, the “Supreme Leader of the Revolution” took away part of his family, including three of his sons, Moatassem, Khamis and Seïf al-Arab, all killed during the 2011 conflict.

But the best known of his descendants, Seïf al-Islam, implicitly dubbed by his father to succeed him one day, and considered in the West as a reformer capable of democratizing and liberalizing the country, is still alive.

Captured in November 2011 by an armed group in Zenten, southwest of Tripoli, then sentenced to death in 2015 after an expeditious trial and wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) on charges of crimes against the humanity, Seif al-Islam remained invisible for a long time, even after the announcement of his release in 2017.

A nostalgia for the Gaddafi years?

And this until last July, when he made, at 49, a resounding reappearance by granting, from Zenten, an interview to the magazine edition from the prestigious New York Times (NYT). While Libya in March adopted a provisional government responsible for unifying institutions by the presidential election scheduled for December 24, Seif al-Islam Gaddafi took advantage of this media exposure to announce his imminent return to the country. Libyan political arena.

This is not the first time that such a return has been announced, while in Libya some believe that the reintegration of former Gaddafi in the political process is necessary to bring national reconciliation to fruition. Already in March 2018, as if to test opinion, the Libyan Popular Front, a party that does not hide its Gaddafi inclinations, announced, from Tunis, the candidacy of the son of the one who had proclaimed himself “king of kings of Africa “, at the next presidential election.

In the NYT interview, Seïf al-Islam, dressed in a black qamis embroidered with gold patterns, graying beard and black turban on his head, does not say whether he will be a candidate for the 2021 presidential election, but he confided to be convinced that his movement can restore the country’s “lost unity”.

Since this interview, his political ambitions have been taken very seriously. “It is not excluded to see one day, in the distant future, a Gaddafi come to power in Libya, it is not completely unthinkable, believes Emadeddin Badi, specialist on Libya and researcher at the Atlantic Council, a American think tank, interviewed by France 24. On the other hand, it is still too early today, so there is very little chance of seeing, if he is a candidate, Seïf al-Islam Gadhafi prevail during the presidential election in December “.

However, the Gaddafi clan, especially Seif al-Islam, remains popular among the nostalgic and some of the former officials of the Libyan Jamahiriya, without counting the clans which remained loyal to the family of the former dictator and part of the national opinion, disappointed by the chronic instability and the slow descent into hell of the country.

A disenchantment on which the Gaddafi ghost intends to surf. “There is no money, no security. There is no more life here. Go to the gas station: there is no gasoline. We export oil and gas to Italy. We’re lighting up half of Italy and we’ve got blackouts here. It’s more than a failure. It’s a fiasco, “he told the NYT.

“In recent years, Seïf al-Islam Gadhafi’s rating has only increased within certain communities, in particular for economic, security or political reasons which arouse much more nostalgia for the Gaddafi years than during the first years which followed the fall of the regime, when no one spoke of a return of this clan “, decrypts Emadeddin Badi.

Ironically, he adds, “this phenomenon is even perceptible at the level of the younger generations, who were not yet mature during Muammar Gaddafi’s lifetime, and who have not really experienced the true nature of his regime”.

Seïf el-Islam, an option for the Russians?

The simple fact that such a scenario of a return to power is plausible says a lot, not only about the current state of the Libyan political class, but also about the geopolitical strategies of foreign powers, continues the researcher.

“We must not forget that his first media release was reserved for the New York Times. However, the Libyan public not usually reading this American daily, the message sent, that of his return, was therefore addressed to a foreign audience and in particular in the direction of the countries most inclined to accept a return to the affairs of his clan “.

Seif el-Islam remains, in fact, a political option which may still interest certain foreign actors in the Libyan conflict, in particular Russia. Especially if the map of Marshal Khalifa Haftar, the protégé of Moscow, were to become totally unplayable.

“While it will be very difficult for Seif al-Islam Gaddafi to enjoy internal legitimacy, he can however count on external support,” indicates Emadeddin Badi. Russia, which has always maintained political, military and even economic relations with the Gaddafi clan may seek to promote, or even impose, a return to a type of clan governance, by relying on it for example “.

However, not to mention the complications that his conviction by a Libyan court and the ICC arrest warrant can cause, the prospect of seeing a Gaddafi back in business is far from unanimous in the country, because the clan counts. many enemies who will do anything to prevent him from returning to the political game.

But not only. “The Gaddafist camp itself is much more fragmented than some might imagine, due to divisions linked to the very image of Seïf al-Islam Gadhafi, perceived by some to be responsible for the fall of his father in because of his positions considered too moderate before the events of 2011 “.

“Even if he came to power, it will be very difficult for him to have control of the monopoly of violence over all Libyan territory due to the fragmentation of the country, concludes Emadeddin Badi. Seïf al-Islam Gaddafi must certainly know this. , Libya is much more complicated than it was in 2011, when her father died.