Covid-19: these figures which show that the epidemic is returning to France – Liberation

It’s go again ? After a lull since midsummer, the spread of Covid-19 seems to be picking up speed. “For a week, the epidemic has started to gain ground again. We are talking about a very low level but we must be vigilant“, Warned Gabriel Attal, the spokesman of the government this Tuesday morning on RTL. “In France, the rebound occurs when the decline (4,234 cases on October 6) had not reached the level of June 25 (1,900 cases)”, noted on Sunday the Swiss epidemiologist Antoine Flahault, on Twitter.

“Up for the third week”

According to the work of his laboratory, the changeover took place at the beginning of October. The reproduction number, which defines the average number of people infected by a patient, rose above 1 on October 4. Which therefore means that the virus is starting to gain ground again.

Antoine Flahault bases his calculation on the number of cases in France which has been on the rise since October 5. There are several methods to calculate the reproduction number. Mircea Sofonea, modeler of infectious diseases in Montpellier also sees its indicators graze with the famous threshold of a person infected by each patient, or even exceed it.

For its part, Public Health France, in its epidemiological update of October 14, notes a number of reproductions less than 1 “But up for the third week in a row, reflecting an increase in the circulation of the virus”.

This trend could encourage the government to be cautious, which did not initially exclude the lifting of the health pass after November 15. “Are the French authorities not lacking in the agility necessary for the management of this pandemic, when they envisage the lifting of the measures on November 15? Because the country will perhaps then be in full rebound (if the trend of seven days is confirmed over the coming month) ”, asked Antoine Flahault about Twitter.

“Cautious optimist”

“This pandemic cannot be managed with the calendar, but on the basis of relevant health indicators. During lulls, we can release the pressure on the population. During the rebounds, we must reinstate the measures “, underlined the epidemiologist. A warning that the executive seems to have already integrated, since it plans to pass a new bill that would leave the possibility activate the health pass until July 2022.

At the same time, to avoid a drop in the protection of the most vulnerable audiences, Gabriel Attal urged fragile people to go get a third dose.

Indeed, thanks to vaccination, the next wave of Covid should put less strain on the hospital system, according to the opinion of October 5 of the Scientific Council. “The models lead to cautious optimism. Thanks to the high vaccination coverage which can still be improved, it will not a priori be necessary to reintroduce very restrictive measures such as curfews or confinement ”, note the scientists, who reason in the absence of appearance of a new variant.

The United Kingdom has known for several weeks high levels of contamination, which do not translate however – yet? – by an increase in hospitalizations and deaths.