North Korea against South Korea, the spiral of the arms race

North Korea no longer seems to be able to do without it. The ballistic missile fired on Tuesday, October 19, represents the fourth missile test by Pyongyang since the beginning of September, after a six-month period of calm.

This renewed activity is taking place in a tense regional context. North Korean leader Kim Jong-un does not indulge in these displays of military force just to try to impress the North American enemy, as he may be used to. All these shots also participate in what appears more and more, in the eyes of many observers, like a “arms race” which is gaining in intensity between North Korea and South Korea.

New cruise missile and supersonic aircraft

“There is currently a very rapid escalation on the Korean peninsula which is reaching a critical point”, analyzes Sebastian Harnisch, specialist in North Korea at the University of Heidelberg, contacted by France 24. “From the point of view of the control of proliferation of arms, the situation has deteriorated significantly in the region in recent months, “confirms Timothy Wright, specialist in military issues at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, contacted by France 24.

Seoul did not sit idly by while Pyongyang continued to fire missiles. South Korea on Monday opened the largest military defense fair in its history, and the country is also hosting a tripartite summit with the United States and Japan this week to discuss military intelligence in the face of the North threat. Korean.

South Korea has also demonstrated its own military strike capabilities. The South Korean government announced in mid-September that it had tested a ballistic missile on board a conventional submarine. Then, a few days later, he confirmed that he had developed a new cruise missile (long range).

The country also entered, in April 2021, in the very closed club of nations – less than ten – with supersonic fighter planes. And finally, he did not hesitate to conduct large-scale military exercises with the United States in August, when “this type of maneuver is officially perceived by Pyongyang as preparations for a ground invasion”, recalls Ramon Pacheco Pardo, Korean Peninsula Security Specialist at King’s College London, interviewed by The Economist.

Seoul and Pyongyang have always sought to intimidate each other militarily. “It is a permanent and long-standing security dilemma. Any military development on one side of the demilitarized zone is perceived as a threat on the other, pushing to develop weapons systems capable of intimidating the adversary”, summarizes Antoine Bondaz, specialist in the two Koreas at the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS), contacted by France 24.

Acceleration of the arms race

“We can trace the arms race back to 1998 and the launch of the first North Korean missile over Japan,” recalls Timothy Wright. Since then, South Korea has been developing and improving missiles capable of hitting and destroying bunkers in which the North Korean staff, including Kim Jong-un, is likely to find refuge in the event of open conflict. And Pyongyang, “aware of not being able to compete in the field of conventional weapons [fusils, tanks, etc.], relies on asymmetric capabilities such as nuclear power, ballistic missiles or cyberattacks, ”notes Antoine Bondaz.

But the current period “marks an acceleration of the arms race, in particular by the extent of the technological improvements made to the arsenals of the two countries”, recognizes Timothy Wright.

The two countries seem to have agreed to put their foot on the military accelerator at the same time and this is “partly due to factors external to the traditional balance of power between the two Koreas”, assures Sebastian Harnisch.

On the Pyongyang side, “Kim Jong-un has to face a very complicated internal situation between the economic crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, which pushes him to put more emphasis than ever on technological successes in order to legitimize his action among its population, “recalls the German researcher from the University of Heidelberg.

The North Korean leader is also benefiting from the deterioration of Sino-American relations. “He feels he has more leeway for his missile tests, since China is less likely to put pressure on him in order to please Washington,” he continues.

Legacy of the Trump era

At the same time, South Korea is no longer limited in the development of its missiles. At the end of the 1970s, Washington had in fact imposed a series of constraints on Seoul to prevent a proliferation of armaments on the Korean peninsula. But “since 2017 and the launch of a North Korean long-range ballistic missile that brought the United States almost within firing range of North Korea, Washington has gradually eliminated the limitations,” recalls The Economist. It was Joe Biden who lifted the last – on the maximum range of a South Korean missile – in May 2021.

Consequence: “There has been a massive increase in defense budgets allowing South Korea to develop all of its missile capabilities,” said Antoine Bondaz.

And again, it’s not just to scare Pyongyang. “The development of national defense capabilities is a politically promising argument used by President Moon Jae-in to establish his popularity,” notes Sebastian Harnisch.

The fault, in part, of former US President Donald Trump. His isolationist rhetoric and his 2018 outings on a possible reduction of the US military presence in South Korea left Koreans with a bitter aftertaste. “It proved that the American ally might not be that reliable, making the need to develop its own missiles a hot topic not only among conservatives, but also among liberals like Moon Jae-in.” , analysis Sebastian Harnisch.

This accumulation of factors, at the origin of the clear escalation in the arms race between the two Koreas, is transforming the Korean peninsula into a real powder keg. The risk “is not to see the situation degenerate into an open conflict between the two Koreas because the elements of dissuasion [menace nucléaire au nord, et soutien américain pour le Sud] remain very strong “, notes Timothy Wright. But with all these weapons that add to each other, Sebastian Harnisch rather fears” human error that can lead to the next crisis. “With missiles and other weapons ever more powerful, the consequences of poor judgment by a general on one side or the other of the demilitarized zone are potentially becoming increasingly serious.