EXCLUSIVE. Here is where the election for the Republican candidate will be played out

The membership card making machine is running at full speed at Les Républicains (LR). With the prospect of the congress and the vote which must decide between the presidential ones, from December 1 to 4, the party crossed the bar of 91,000 members on Saturday, or 12,000 additional activists in three weeks. We are still far from the records of the Sarkozy era, with 370,000 members claimed in 2007. But it is a breath of fresh air for a formation that many said died after the defeat of François Fillon in the presidential election. “I no longer believe in old-fashioned political parties,” said Xavier Bertrand in June 2017, a few months before leaving LR.

As Valerie Pécresse, who had also slammed the door of the party in 2019, the president of the Hauts-de-France Region has yet decided to take back his card this week and calls on his supporters to do the same. The candidates in the running – Xavier Bertrand, Valérie Pécresse, Michel barnier, Eric Ciotti, Philippe Juvin and Denis Payre – all want to “do” as many cards as possible to influence the outcome of the election. Above all, they will have to score points in the federations which weigh the heaviest in terms of the number of members, of which the JDD reveals the numbers: the ballot will be played first in Île-de-France, first of all in Paris, in the South, with the powerful federation of the Alpes-Maritimes, and in the Rhône.

Alpes-Maritimes: Ciotti superstar

Congress candidate, the deputy of the Alpes-Maritimes, Eric Ciotti, can count on the support of the most powerful federation of Republicans, with nearly 7,000 members. In October 2018, he seized the federation to the detriment of his lifelong rival, the mayor of Nice, Christian Estrosi, who ended up slamming the party’s door during the regional meetings in June, before giving his support to Emmanuel Macron.

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With the support of MP LR, Michèle Tabarot, in the first round, Éric Ciotti relied on his stronghold to obtain a double-digit score, which would allow him to position himself as a kingmaker between the two rounds of Congress. However, Xavier Bertrand also has relays in the department: Senator Dominique Estrosi-Sassonne has long been part of his close team. As for Valérie Pécresse, she can rely on the deputy LR Éric Pauget.

Paris: Dati, the unpredictable

With more than 800 additional cards, the number of Parisian members rose from 5,198 to 6,000 in three weeks. What makes it the second federation of Republicans, in the heart of the chosen lands of Valérie Pécresse. The president of the Île-de-France Region, who will meet Parisian activists on Thursday, can hope to glean many supporters there, and has her friends overwhelmingly joined. “The militant base has just made its regional campaign, underlines an elected Parisian LR. It is one of the federations which will be favorable to it.”

However, Valérie Pécresse does not reign supreme there. The activists also look favorably on Michel Barnier. “An internal election is by definition totally uncertain,” warns the president of the federation, Agnès Evren. Above all, Pécresse must reckon with the unpredictable Rachida Dati. The unsuccessful candidate for mayor of Paris “does not support any candidate”, say those around her. But she is very much courted.

Bouches-du-Rhône: the weight of Muselier

The few 4,500 members of the federation The Republicans of Bouches-du-Rhône have enough to be confused after the loss of Marseille, conquered by the left in the municipal elections of 2020. While the battle of the congress opens to LR, their local leaders, them, eyeing rather… the Élysée and Emmanuel Macron. Their president, Renaud Muselier, thus caused a political storm on the right, last May, by deciding to join forces with La République en Marche for the regional elections, to the chagrin of his friend Christian Jacob, the president of LR.

While relations have since calmed down, the strategic divergence remains. Renaud Muselier, historical Chiraquian and close to François Baroin, did not take sides between the various candidates for the congress. There is no doubt that its position will weigh heavily locally. The former president of the federation, Bruno Gilles, for his part left LR in 2019. He was on October 9 in Le Havre for the launch of Horizons, the new party of former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe.

Hauts-de-Seine: the stronghold of Philippe Juvin

Strong of 4.114 members, the LR federation of Hauts-de-Seine is chaired by one of the candidates declared at the congress, the mayor of La Garenne-Colombes, Philippe Juvin, reelected in April by the militants with… 100% of the votes. It is true that he was the only candidate. If he manages to gather the 250 sponsorships of elected officials necessary to participate in the vote, the professor of medicine could be a thorn in the side of Valérie Pécresse, who relies on the militant battalions of Île-de-France to make the difference on December 4th.

So he can hardly count on her to find godparents. “Pécresse demanded that all its regional advisers sponsor her, confides an LR executive. Even the departmental secretary of Hauts-de-Seine, Marie-Do Aeschlimann, who is nevertheless close to Juvin, was obliged to sponsor Pécresse …” On the contrary , the elected of La Garenne-Colombes could take advantage of an interested helping hand from friends of Xavier Bertrand… “A rallying of Juvin could create a dynamic of second round”, estimates a friend of the president of the Hauts-de Region -France.

Rhône: the lands of Wauquiez

In the heart of Laurent Wauquiez’s lands, the LR du Rhône federation counts more than 3,000 members. The president of the Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes region has decided not to officially take a position in favor of this or that candidate. But many of his friends have joined the former European Commissioner Michel Barnier. And this all the more easily as the former member of Savoy is a neighbor.

Read also – Presidential election: how Barnier hopes to surprise Les Républicains

If Laurent Wauquiez controls his region with an iron fist, it is nevertheless one of his opponents, Alexandre Vincendet, who chairs the Rhône federation. The mayor of Rillieux-la-Pape was re-elected by activists last May, with 56% of the vote, despite Wauquiez’s hostility. He is actively campaigning today in favor of Xavier Bertrand. “Do we want to choose the one who has had his card the longest, who is the most chemically pure, or should we choose the one who will be the most capable of being in the second round of the presidential election? ? “, he pleads. In the neighboring department of Ain, Bertrand can also count on the support of the head of LR deputies, Damien Abad.

Yvelines, the kingdom of Pécresse

Welcome to Pécressie! The Yvelines federation, strong nearly 3,000 members, is the stronghold of the candidate and president of the Île-de-France Region, Valérie Pécresse. It was there that she grew up, in Versailles, and was elected Member of Parliament in 2002, then regional councilor. This has earned her the image of “Versaillaise”, which she struggles to get rid of. His godfather in politics, the President of the Senate, Gérard Larcher, is also an elected official from the Yvelines.

Beyond that, the Ile-de-France departments, outside of Paris, count on their own more than 13,000 LR members. Enough to seriously tip the balance of Congress. “Pécresse has a good overall presence in Île-de-France,” said an elected Parisian. For ten years, it has brought out a whole generation of “Pécresse babies”, these right-wing mayors victorious in the municipal elections in 2014, then in 2020. It should in particular fill the voices in Essonne (1,380 members), although the president of the department, François Durovray, militates for Xavier Bertrand.