Kollár on the current epidemic situation: It will be worse than we expected! We will burn to the top – Topky.sk

The epidemic situation is worse again after a week. ABOUTd Monday, October 18, there will be five districts in Slovakia in black. There will be 22 districts in the second level of threat, ie in the burgundy phase. There will be 37 red districts, 15 orange districts. At its meeting on Thursday, the Government of the Slovak Republic approved the division of districts according to current risk within the COVID vending machine.

However, as the mathematician Richard Kollár explained, in his COVID semaphore, Slovakia is already a burgundy, due to the high number of hospitalized patients and the incidence of tests. According to him, it is symbolic that from next week some districts on the COVID map will light up black, however, they should have had this color earlier. However, last week the regional hygienists asked the government to wait until the situation improved before the districts were painted black.

Source: Topky / Vlado Anjel

On the contrary, it worsened even more, and therefore the government did not hesitate, and the districts Bardejov, Čadca, Kysucké Nové Mesto, Stará Ľubovňa and Svidník put the most critical regions in terms of the epidemic situation. “Given the expected exponential distribution of the severity of the epidemiological situation in Slovakia, this means that even though most of our territory is still fine, the bad situation in a small number of outbreaks is so bad that a large part of society is at risk., ” Kollár pointed out.

The wood is starting to pass

He added that the current numbers of hospitalized patients and the incidence of patients show that for more than a month, since the numbers of positively tested people began to rise in Slovakia, we have been moving along the curve of last year’s wave. “That is, the slightly lower state of hospitalizations today relative to the last wave can only be caused by a greater degree of delay. It’s not good at all, because about approx. In 3 weeks, this trend is already leading to the black phase, where the number of hospitalizations will approach 1,700. he wrote. By wood, he meant people who are not vaccinated and have not even overcome the coronavirus, so they do not have any antibodies. According to Kollar, at the end of October, about 200,000 of the estimated 700,000 people will be infected during this wave, and we should thus reach a level of about 90 percent of the population in the population – whether after overcoming or vaccination against coronavirus.

Source: Getty Images

He also pointed out another fact that is probably waiting for us – the autumn wave will not be as short as initially estimated. In addition, for the first time during the third wave, the positivity of PCR assays reached over 15 percent. “That’s quite a lot, for approx. For 2-3 weeks we sprinted the link between good condition in the summer to the muzzle of bad condition in the spring (in PCR tests we are almost exactly where we were on October 21, 2020 and also March 23, 2021, and only 23 days back to black February) . We are testing a little more than last week, but we are getting more and more infected in the outbreaks, “ the mathematician pointed out, noting that the more infected people leak into the data, the more new outbreaks are created, which is especially true for schools. However, he added, not every cough and lump in children automatically has to be coronavirus immediately, because young children are more prone to seasonal diseases such as flu and colds.

Source: Getty Images

We burn to the ground

According to Kollár, the main problem is that in the last few weeks, on average 10,000 tests are taken a day, but according to the mathematician, at least 15,000 tests should be done. Interest in testing is said to be the biggest problem, as in some regions it is allegedly not possible to order in time and easily. “Because we all know very well how antigen testing helped us a year ago, those who don’t know can deny any catastrophic film about epidemics. It won’t be accurate, but if they went to see Slovak hospitals in the spring, I don’t know, I don’t know, ” He pointed out that for the first time since the spring, the positivity of antigen tests increased to 2 percent, and we thus reached roughly the level from the middle of November last year, when the second round of surface testing took place.

Kollár also pointed out another interesting paradox – the worse the situation in Slovakia, the fewer antigen tests will be done. As well as interest in vaccinations. “People are becoming more and more needy for testing. This is not good news, as they are the most likely targets of new infections. We assume that outbreaks are starting to develop more often around the fires. We burn locally to the ground, “ stated.

Source: TASR / Jaroslav Novák

In the end, Kollár summarized what awaits us and will not pass – the peak will come later than expected, the wave will be longer than originally predicted, in regions where the situation has been relatively stable so far, will begin to gradually deteriorate, even in the case of so-called . joker districts such as Šaša, Galanta, Bratislava, Dunajská Streda and Trnava. Nevertheless, it assumes that the capacity of hospitals will be sufficient even after reprofiling, and thus it should not happen that a person with a severe coronavirus does not get to the hospital. Schools are unlikely to close, nor will some universities.

Source: Getty Images

“If I’m not mistaken, the vaccination lottery ends this week, tomorrow you all have the last chance to register (I will definitely not make it), which took place at a time of systematic decline in interest in vaccination and did not change the trend at all. More than 100,000 winnings, more than 20 million Euros. I am adamant that the Value for Money Department and the Financial Policy Institute (did not) evaluate that 20+ mega helicopter money for the lottery was certainly more important than payments for medical services to insurance companies, ” he concluded ironically in the conclusion, noting that the winners will definitely spend money more responsibly, since to be healthy is a win in itself.