It is presented as the “Bible” of the energy sector, read by heads of state and bosses of oil companies. A voluminous report published each autumn by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the “World Energy Outlook” (WEO) presents medium and long-term production and consumption scenarios.
The 2021 edition, published Wednesday 13 October – it precedes the 26e world climate conference (COP26), a crucial meeting which will open on October 31 in Glasgow (Scotland) – carries a clear message: the rapid development of solar, wind, electric vehicles and other low technologies carbon is in the process of bringing about the emergence of a new energy sector. But at the current rate, these changes are absolutely not enough to hope to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050.
“Progress in clean energy is still far too slow to bring global emissions down sustainably to ‘net zero’, which underlines the need for a clear signal of ambition and action on the part of governments. in Glasgow “, insists Fatih Birol, the executive director of the IEA, attached to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), spokesperson for the main importing countries.
WEO 2021 explores three avenues. First, a “net zero emissions” scenario, which makes it possible to limit warming to 1.5 ° C by the end of the century compared to the pre-industrial era – under the terms of the Paris agreement of 2015. It follows a highly commented report in May. For the first time so insistently, the IEA underlined the need to immediately cease all investment in new oil and gas facilities. The organization also described a series of 400 milestones for “Totally transform” the energy sector in less than three decades. Since then, civil society organizations have called for this “1.5 ° C scenario” to be at the heart of the IEA report.
To achieve this objective, the institution recalls the importance of ” to push “ even more low-carbon electrification of uses, in particular enabled by “The doubling” of photovoltaics, the deployment of wind power as well as the use of nuclear power, described five months ago as “Essential basis for transitions”.
A second scenario of WEO 2021 suggests what will happen in the event of the status quo in relation to the policies implemented or under development. For the first time, it predicts that demand for fossil fuels will slow down to a plateau in the 2030s, then decline slightly by 2050. By mid-century, however, annual greenhouse gas emissions would be almost equivalent. to those of today.
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