No impact of vaccines on Covid cases? Be careful with this “study”, relayed by Didier Raoult – LCI

CONTROVERSE – Methodological bias, data studied over a single week, co-author still in high school … A scientific publication put forward by Didier Raoult questions. Especially since the latter deceptively presents the journal from which this study is extracted.

Relayed by Internet users, a publication highlighted on September 30 by the European Journal of Epidemiology gained notoriety after Didier Raoult shared it with his subscribers. A source deemed very reliable by the microbiologist based in Marseille – it is, according to him, the “most popular journal in the world in epidemiology”. The conclusions of this work, he explains, highlight “the lack of correlation between vaccine policy and number of cases”.

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While some share this article in denouncing the uselessness of government policies focusing on vaccination, voices have been raised to highlight the biases and weaknesses of this publication. Critics that are not limited to the French borders.

Data observed over only 7 days

In Canada, the leader of the Conservative Party of Quebec Éric Duhaime also highlighted this study. The local press, without delay, sought the advice of a doctor and pharmacologist to assess its reliability. “This is a very short article which is not peer reviewed”, notes Dr. Mathieu Nadeau-Vallée. “Usually they are accepted after a journal editor read. This is an observational study, so not experimental. This type of study is great for developing research hypotheses, but not great for drawing conclusions. The study is very biased and I’m not sure we can conclude anything. “

These biases, what are they? Whether it be across the Atlantic or in France, observers looked at this publication and first of all pointed out that to analyze the evolution of new contaminations in relation to the percentage of the population vaccinated, the authors selected data over 7 days only. A period considered particularly short and which makes any interpretation all the more fragile. It should also be noted that the countries studied are in extremely variable epidemic dynamics, some experiencing major periods of calm when others are facing an outbreak of contaminations.

Among other major limitations, it should be noted that differences in testing policies have not been taken into account. Problematic, especially because a country that is very proactive in this area and which would test its population very massively would have a better chance of identifying positive patients, compared to another where only people who present symptoms are invited to undergo screening. .

Another element “forgotten” by the authors, the variations which are observed from one country to another at the level of the sanitary measures in force. Wearing a mask, gauges in shops, bans on public gatherings … Across the world, public health policies vary widely, with an undeniable effect on contamination. The Swedish example, with authorities showing reluctance to promote the mask, showed major variations compared to other Scandinavian countries, where the epidemic has spread much less.

While seeking information on the authors of this article, observers noted that the latter were only two, but especially that alongside a Harvard teacher appeared … A high school student! Co-signer of the publication, Akhil Kumar is indeed presented as a student in Brampton, a Canadian city in Ontario located in the suburbs of Toronto.

The misleading presentation of Didier Raoult

On these social networks, Professor Raoult evokes about the European Journal of Epidemiology a journal that would be “the most popular in the world in epidemiology”. A contested assertion, in particular by a doctor of biology, who looked at the “H-index” of this source. This is a classification which takes into account the articles published which have subsequently been the subject of repetitions and citations in other scientific journals. Logically, if a journal highlights studies deemed important by the scientific community, these are regularly taken as examples and reused, resulting in a high score for the H-index.

With regard to the European Journal of Epidemiology, we note that it appears only in 20th place among journals in epidemiology. What relativize the words of Didier Raoult. The professor based in Marseille also indicates that he is “editor” of this review, an assertion that is again misleading since it is no longer so since January 2021. The journalist of Liberation Florian Gouthière has contacted the person in charge of the review in order to to have confirmation.

“Leave of the editorial board [le comité éditorial, NDLR] was notified to Didier Raoult by email in the second half of December 2020 “, do we learn. But the latter “apparently did not acknowledge this message to the editor. Nine months later, he still does not seem to have realized he stepped off the board.” When the journalist asked the reasons which had led to the withdrawal of Didier Raoult from this editorial committee, the person in charge of the review put forward a “renewal” of the team, without further details.

Read also

  • Didier Raoult “was able to create phenomena” of vaccine rejection, according to Macron
  • “There are only 13 to 14% of people eligible to be vaccinated”, announces Alain Fischer

Do you want to ask us questions or provide us with information that you think is unreliable? Do not hesitate to write to us at [email protected]. You can also find us on Twitter: our team is there behind the account @ verif_TF1LCI.

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