It is one thing to win an election, another to form a government. Elections are held in the Czech Republic on Friday and Saturday. It is no longer possible to publish opinion polls. But those last published by the media showed that the YES movement of Prime Minister Andrej Babiš could get 25 to 27 percent of the vote.
Photo: SITA / AP, Petr David Josek
Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš at the EU summit in Slovenia. On the left, Slovenian Prime Minister Janez Janša.
The question is whether his position will not be affected at the last minute by the Pandora Papers case. According to leaked documents, in 2009 Babiš bought real estate for 15 million euros in France. The money for the transaction went through offshore companies in tax havens.
Not coalitions
Regardless of the result of the vote, Babiš has one ace up his sleeve. President Miloš Zeman, whose state of health is much debated in the Czech Republic, is ready to entrust YES with the formation of the government. The head of state has previously stated that this option will be given to the individual entity with the highest number of seats. Since the main competitors of ANO are two coalitions, according to political scientists, Zeman will definitely give Babiš a chance.
“It is the most probable idea. Even if the coalitions Together (ODS, KDU-ČSL, TOP 09, ed. Note) and Pirates and Mayors had a majority in the Chamber of Deputies, President Zeman said in advance that he would entrust the formation of a government to an electoral winner. be a political party. Not a coalition, “political scientist Pavel Šaradín from Palacký University in Olomouc responded for Pravda.
Together, according to the latest opinion polls, it could have between 20 and 23 percent of the vote, Pirates and Mayors 17 to 19 percent. Under certain circumstances, this could be enough for a narrow majority in the 100-member Chamber of Deputies.
“After the election, however, Babiš and Zeman will try to erode these coalitions. They will simply start a political game aimed at keeping the head of the ANO movement in the prime minister’s seat. It is nowhere written how long this process will take. until next year, “Sharadin reminded.
“The YES movement will receive a mandate to form a government. Especially if it manages to win the election. I don’t think we have to doubt at all that the president will entrust Babiš with forming the government. This will happen even if two coalitions have a majority in the Chamber of Deputies. “Jan Bureš, a political scientist from the Metropolitan University in Prague, told Pravda.” Babiš is Zeman’s closest ally on the Czech political scene. It is also true that the head of state has no interest in appointing a right-wing government. Zeman explains his contract with the electorate in this way, dating back to 2013, when he ran for the first time as head of state in direct elections. He also won them thanks to criticism from the cabinet led by the ODS, “Bureš reminded.
The idyll is not expected
According to the political scientist, it can be said with some exaggeration that the elections in the Czech Republic cannot end well. Bureš thinks that YES would prefer the same distribution of power as he has now. That is, cooperation with the CSSD and support for the Communists. “However, it is possible that a populist government will emerge. And YES will have to rely on the Immaculate, the Oath and the Communists. they offer after the election, it is not good, “said the political scientist.” The least bad option would probably be the cooperation of the two coalitions. I really think that the country needs cleansing of people who have nothing to do in politics. Populism to extremism spread. In addition, Babiš is in a huge conflict of interest, “Bureš emphasized.
On the other hand, the expert warns that even if the two coalitions succeed in forming a government, such a cabinet will certainly not work idyllic. “Pirates are an extremely unreliable partner. It is a party where there is a discrepancy between the rather sympathetic election program and the frightening experience of those members of the Pirates who are already in power somewhere at the regional level. It can be a problem for Together,” Bureš said.
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