France: INSEE forecasts a falling unemployment rate, to 7.6% in the third quarter – franceinfo

Green indicators for France. INSEE forecasts a sharp drop in the unemployment rate in the third quarter, to 7.6% of the working population against 8% in the second quarter, linked to the strong rebound in employment, according to his last economic note published Wednesday October 6.

“The strong rebound in employment in the middle of the year would translate into a drop in unemployment, which would drop from 8% on average in the second quarter to 7.6%” in the third trimester, or “almost a point less than two years earlier”, explains the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies.

The 7.6% rate would remain in the fourth quarter, forecasts INSEE. In its last economic report in July, the Institute anticipated a virtual stability of the unemployment rate, at 8.2% at the end of 2021, after 8.1% at the beginning of the year.

INSEE emphasizes that “the shock wave” linked to the Covid-19 health crisis was “very amortized with regard to the labor market”, salaried employment having exceeded its pre-crisis level as of the second quarter of 2021.

“The pace of creations should slow down somewhat by the end of the year but, in total, around 500 000 net creations of salaried jobs would follow the 300,000 net destructions recorded in 2020 “, underlines INSEE in its economic report.

At the same time, economic activity “would return overall – but without exceeding it unlike employment – its pre-crisis level by the end of the year, continues INSEE, which maintains its growth forecast. for 2021 unchanged at 6.25%.