Data without pathos: Slovakia ranks first in Europe in the number of deaths. We went up an incredible 248% – interez.sk – Interez.sk

When experts from the environment of epidemiology and health care or analyzes created the COVID automat, which was approved by the government in August, they already had knowledge that Slovakia would fight the delta variant in the third wave. Today we are at the beginning of October and the representation of this variant is in 100% of samples.

However, the COVID automaton already correctly calculated that this wave will not be nationwide, but will be regional. Nevertheless, analysts from Give without pathos point out that the COVID machine is set too strictly. The color of the district also affects neighboring districts, the vaccination of risky age groups (and other parameters) is also taken into account, and districts can obtain the so-called jokers. This is the case, for example, of Bratislava, which will no longer be worse than red.

Slovakia is again in first place in Europe in terms of the growth in the number of deaths

Slovakia is in the first place in Europe in the growth of the number of deaths in the last and the previous week with a growth of 248 percent. “It’s three to four times that. From 23, we have grown to 80, ” the mathematicians of the project Data without Pathos stated on Tuesday on the social network.

Analysts also reminded that they were and still are optimistic about other estimates. Data without pathos expected that the course and impacts of the third wave of the pandemic on Slovakia will be compared to the second wave “Far milder, lower numbers of patients and victims”. However, until recently, the predictions of other experts also appeared, which spoke of twice the number of victims as in the case of the second wave. “That would be 25,000. We think we need to delete the two and we will be much closer to reality, “ added mathematicians.

The 3rd wave will probably be longer than expected

Even in the latest article, analysts pointed out that it does not make such sense to monitor national numbers, it is important to capture outbreaks in the regions. Last week, after the government’s deliberations, the head of the Institute of Health Analyzes (IZA), Matej, also drew attention to the deteriorating situation in some regions. Mišík. The situation in Kysucké Nové Mesto and Čadca. If the situation continues to deteriorate, the region could go black. In the districts Stará Ľubovňa and Skalica occurred under Mišík to stabilize, analysts see it differently. According to him, more significant increases can be seen in the district Detva, Stropkov and Svidník.

In some regions, the positivity is also 30%, on average it is around 12%, which means that we do not have time to sufficiently track and test everyone and there are many times more infected people. Within 3 weeks, the number of daily cases will double, so we will grow. However, this growth will be more modest than expected. This means that the curve will not go steeply upwards, it will rise more moderately and thus longer, which would mean that the 3rd wave will not be so fast.

An example with Stará Ľubovňa

Analysts today supplemented their claims and took a closer look at Stara Lubovna, which they cited as an example of a district where there are many outbreaks and the disease is spreading uncontrollably. Other districts await in a moment.

Today’s situation in Stará Ľubovňa – 54,000 inhabitants = 1% of Slovakia = it will count well.

• They did not test yesterday, they had only 1 PCR positive result – uff…
• Today they have 80 / As if Slovakia had 8000 (has 1250)
• 555 PCR incidence in 7 days per 100 thousand inhabitants
• Along with AG tests, the 7-day incidence is 700 (Slovakia 150)
• They have a 14-day PCR incidence of 750, along with AG of nearly 1000

“These are numbers above the level of autumn, but also above the level of spring II. waves. Still on September 15 (for the Pope) they had a 7-day incidence in Stará Ľubovňa of 50. So they actually didn’t “have”, because 50 is 1 positive per 1000 inhabitants for the whole week. Today they are 10 times and they will go at least 2 times, “ added analysts in the status.

Delta can be fast. And talk of a 30% “slow” growth of the Slovak average is absolutely irrelevant. As last year, today we need to look at the matter regionally.

Districts where the situation has deteriorated sharply

Analysts pointed out that the situation is dramatically different in the north and south, and therefore it does not make sense to look at average numbers. It is necessary to look at the regions and their growth in the last week in a 7-day incidence:

• March grew 5 times
• Kežmarok and Stropkov 4 times
• Poltár, Gelnica and Hlohovec to 3 times

Some districts have reached high numbers:

• Bardejov is in PCR over 500 and PCR + AG in 661
• The whole region behind the Tatras is growing high and fast
• Kysuce and Orava get over 500 and grow fast

We have black in COVID Automate in numbers above 250, but the Ministry of Health has not yet included any districts there, which, according to analysts, was the right move, as the machine is relatively strict. If we followed the numbers, it would be black Bardejov, Stará Ľubovňa, Svidník, Stropkov and Kysuce + Orava. These districts can reach doubles and 1000 numbers (PCR + AG positive in 7 days per 100,000 inhabitants) in 7-10 days.

Deaths will double

As for deaths, there were 72 in the last week, the previous 27. That is 99 deaths in 14 days, which is about 1% of the number of positives within 2 weeks ago. Now, according to analysts, they will double in the next 2 weeks, because the number of infected people is growing.

In the north of Slovakia you need to be vigilant.