Submarines: France’s risky bet against the United States

Is France engaging alone in a frontal crisis with the United States? By openly displaying its indignation at the cancellation of the Australian submarine contract, Paris is putting European cooperation to the test. “When you enter a crisis of this type, you have to know which door you can get out of,” warns Bertrand Badie, professor of international relations at the Institute of Political Science in Paris.

The foreign ministers of the bloc will discuss, on Monday evening, the consequences and implications of the security pact concluded between the United States, Australia and the United Kingdom, at a meeting on the sidelines of the General Assembly of the UN, announced a spokesperson for the European Commission.

To express its anger, France recalled its ambassador to the United States, an unprecedented act vis-à-vis this historic ally, as well as that in Australia, the country at the origin of the crisis.

“They will have to return to their posts, especially the ambassador in Washington. However, we do not see today what type of event could allow this return without France giving the impression of giving in or losing control. face “, explains Bertrand Badie to AFP.

Paris is not angry with the United States and Australia which, by announcing last week a strategic alliance with London to counter the influence of China, at the same time torpedoed a contract of sale of French submarines to the Australian Navy for more than 50 billion euros.

If President Emmanuel Macron has remained silent, his head of diplomacy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, usually not very expansive, shoots red balls on the three offenders in very little diplomatic terms rather rare.

“Lie”, “duplicity”, “contempt” … He accuses them of having concealed their negotiations for months, denounces a “major breach of confidence” between NATO allies and in the process calls the United Kingdom a “fifth wheel of the carriage”.

European silence

Faced with this charge, coupled with an eloquent European silence, France finds itself very alone on the international scene as the UN Annual General Assembly opens this week in New York. Emmanuel Macron chose not to go there, Jean-Yves Le Drian representing France.

In Berlin, the government confined itself to saying that it had “taken note” of the crisis. With the German legislative elections of September 26, France knows that it will hardly be able to count immediately on Berlin.

“It is a blow for France. There is no exit from the top”, considers Célia Belin, specialist in transatlantic relations at the Brookings Institution. In this imbroglio, “we must demand that things end in a legal and correct manner with the Australians,” she told AFP.

The escalation with the United States is likely to have an impact on several issues unless an attempt is made to quickly pick up the pieces. “It can be formal, symbolic gestures, a meeting, very kind words, something that comes to flatter French diplomacy,” Judge Bertrand Badie.

Joe Biden asked to explain himself with Emmanuel Macron, who will take him on the phone in the “next few days”, according to French government spokesman Gabriel Attal. At this stage, no bilateral meeting is planned on the sidelines of the UN Assembly between the French foreign minister and his American counterparts, Antony Blinken, and British, Liz Truss.

Towards a way out of the crisis?

A meeting of French and British defense ministers, scheduled for this week, has been canceled at the request of Paris. “We have the right to be angry (…). But the risk for France is that it is anger which guides it”, points out François Heisbourg, of the Foundation for Strategic Research (FRS) in Paris.

Among the possible exits from crises, Australia could rent nuclear attack submarines from France while waiting for the United States to provide them, he suggests. The initial contract was for diesel powered submersibles.

“After a snub like that, it is very important that the French concentrate on Europe and ensure European solidarity,” said Célia Belin.

Far from his promises at the start of his mandate, Joe Biden has already jostled his European partners several times, from the unilateral announcement of the withdrawal from Afghanistan to the maintenance of closed borders for European travelers due to the Covid-19 pandemic.

“But Europe has never been so divided on its foreign policy options” and on its relationship with Washington, observes Bertrand Badie.

For Eastern Europeans, salvation from Russia can only come through the United States. Germany also remains anxious to spare the American ally. These positions go against the strategic autonomy of Europe demanded by President Macron, whose country will take over the presidency of the European Union in the first half of 2022.

With AFP