No G20 country complies with the Paris Climate Agreement, analysis finds

(CNN) – None of the world’s major economies, including all of the G20, has a climate plan that meets its obligations under the 2015 Paris Agreement, according to an analysis released Wednesday, despite the scientists’ warning that deep cuts are now needed in greenhouse gas emissions.

The watchdog Climate Action Tracker (CAT) analyzed the policies of 36 countries, as well as the 27 countries of the European Union, and found that all major economies were out of the way to contain global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius per above pre-industrial levels. Countries together account for 80% of global emissions.

The analysis also included some low-emission countries and found that The Gambia was the only nation among the 37 that was “compatible with the 1.5 [grados]”Since the study only included a few smaller issuers, it is possible that other developing countries in the world are also on track.

Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, more than 190 countries agreed to limit the rise in global temperatures to well below 2 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures, ideally 1.5 degrees Celsius. Scientists have said that 2 degrees Celsius is a critical threshold for some of Earth’s ecosystems, and it is one that would also trigger more catastrophic extreme weather events.

The report comes less than two months before the UN-mediated international climate talks in Glasgow, known as COP26. The event’s chairman, British MP Alok Sharma, has said he hopes to “keep 1.5 alive” as the limit on global warming.

The CAT reported that progress had stalled after dozens of world leaders made ambitious new promises to reduce greenhouse gas emissions during the US President Joe Biden’s Climate Leaders Summit in April.

“In May, following the Climate Leaders Summit and the Petersburg Dialogue, we reported that there seemed to be good momentum with new climate action commitments,” said Niklas Höhne, founding partner of the NewClimate Institute, a partner at CAT.

“But since then, there has been little or no improvement – nothing is moving,” he said. “Anyone would think they have all the time in the world, when in fact the opposite is true.”

How is the world in its fight against climate change?

Six nations, including the UK, have an overarching climate policy that is “almost sufficient,” according to the report, meaning they are not yet consistent with a 1.5 degree alignment, but could have small improvements. The UK’s targets are in line with 1.5 grades, but its policies in practice do not meet the benchmark.

Overall U.S. climate plans, the European Union and Japan are not enough to reach the 1.5 degree goal, the analysis found, saying that while its national goals are relatively close to where they need to be, its international policies are not.

The CAT had previously categorized the United States as “critically insufficient” – the worst category – under the administration of former President Donald Trump, who formally withdrew the country from the Paris Agreement shortly before the end of his term.

The US domestic emissions reduction target has since been updated to “almost sufficient.” However, the United States remains insufficient in the CAT’s “fair share” objective rating, which takes into account the country’s “responsibility and capacity.”

Under the Paris Agreement, countries submitted their commitments to reduce emissions, also known as Nationally Determined Contributions or NDCs. All signatories were supposed to update their NDCs by July 31 this year under the Paris Agreement. There are still more than 70 countries that have not yet submitted an update.

India, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are among the countries that missed the July 31 deadline. China, the world’s biggest polluter, announced a new target, but has not formally submitted it to the UN.

And many countries submitted an “update” without actually increasing their commitment. Brazil and Mexico presented the same targets as they did in 2015. Changes in those countries’ baseline assumptions weaken their pledges from before, the analysis showed. Russia, according to the CAT report, submitted an update that looks more robust on paper, but does not represent a significant change.

“Of particular concern are Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico, New Zealand, Russia, Singapore, Switzerland and Vietnam: they have failed to raise ambition at all, presenting the same or even less ambitious 2030 targets than those they proposed in 2015. These countries must reconsider their choice, “said Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, another CAT partner.

Many countries still use coal and fossil fuels

The continued use of coal remains a significant political problem, according to the report, with China and India holding back huge coal pipelines. Indonesia, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea also plan to go ahead with the use of coal in the future.

The CAT also warned that in many countries’ attempts to ditch coal, which is generally the fossil fuel that causes the majority of emissions, several were looking to use more natural gas, which the CAT said was falsely sold as a “fuel bridge”.

The Australian government, which has said it will continue to mine coal after 2030, is also investing money in new exploration and gas infrastructure, and “is of particular concern,” the CAT said in its report.

Thailand has plans to increase new gas as it phas out coal, while the European Union still plans to commit public funds for new gas infrastructure, and several member states are pushing hard for continued use of this fossil fuel.

Hare warned against developing blue hydrogen, based on natural gas, as an alternative to other fossil fuels.

“Gas is a fossil fuel, and any investment in gas today runs the risk of becoming a stranded asset. And while interest in green hydrogen has grown exponentially, there are still a large number of hydrogen projects in the pipeline. those that are produced from gas, “Hare said. “Hydrogen produced from gas still produces carbon and is incompatible with going to net zero.”

Emission reductions to net zero by 2050

Emission reduction is a non-negotiable part of the Paris Agreement. Carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases trap solar radiation in the atmosphere, just like glass traps heat in a greenhouse. This causes temperatures to rise and drives more extreme weather, melting ice, rising sea levels, and acidification of the oceans.

To keep heating below 1.5 degrees, the world must reach net zero by 2050, a UN climate science report published in August showed.

Net zero refers to a state in which the amount of greenhouse gas emitted is not greater than the amount removed from the atmosphere.

According to the UN Climate Change Agreement, just over 130 countries have pledged to cut emissions to zero so far. The new analysis by CAT found that even if everyone followed their plans, warming would still reach 2 degrees.

If they stick with the policies they have, temperatures are likely to be 2.4 degrees higher by the end of the century.

Temperatures are already around 1.2 degrees higher than they were before humans started burning large amounts of fossil fuels, so the margin for error is very limited.

“An increasing number of people around the world are experiencing the increasingly severe and frequent effects of climate change, but government action continues to lag behind what is needed,” said Bill Hare, CEO of the group of Climate Analytics experts and another author of the analysis.

While many governments have committed to net zero, Hare cautions that without real action soon, achieving net zero will be “virtually impossible.”