Yesterday, there were almost 500 cases in Slovakia, which is the highest since the end of April, when the second wave was slowly ending in our country. With the arrival of autumn, it is clear that infections will increase. Compared to last year, we have the advantage that there are vaccines. However, the vaccination rate is low and this will probably affect the intensity of the third wave.
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The increase in cases will probably not end so soon
According to the mathematician Richard Kollár, in order to be able to determine when the peak of the third wave will occur, we need to know the percentage of the Slovak population that has not yet been sufficiently immunized against coronavirus. “Ie they are not fully vaccinated and have not overcome a sufficiently strong infection during the previous wave of the alpha variant. We can only estimate the number of these people very roughly and hope that it is as low as possible.” said for Topky Kollár.
Experts will be able to estimate the exact numbers in about two weeks, when they will know the data on how fast the coronavirus is spreading in open schools. “Unfortunately, it is almost certain that there will still be a lot of non-immunized people in Slovakia, so the increase will not end so soon,” stated. According to the Minister of Health Vladimír Lengvarský, data on penetration are being collected and the map should be available in a few weeks. According to him, the number of positive cases due to the degree of vaccination should not exceed the numbers we had at the peak of the second wave.
The third wave will be different, especially in the behavior of the population
How will the third wave be different from the second? It will be different especially in the behavior of the population. “For many, the pandemic is over, so any measures written on paper will not be followed very carefully. Also for this reason and due to the higher infectivity rate of the delta variant, we expect a faster onset of the wave and its penetration among almost all Slovaks.” stated the mathematician.
On the other hand, the rate of immunization of society, according to Kollar, will cause many people to not even encounter an infection. “But it all depends on how many people can still become infected and have a more serious average. There are no relevant data for that.” stated.
Everyone will encounter the virus
According to the expert, no break will occur. “Open schools and workplaces, a low level of willingness to comply with stricter measures and at the same time looser measures, all this will cause the virus to get everywhere not only in Slovakia, everyone will meet it. said Kollár.
According to the mathematician, large-scale mass events, such as the Pope’s visit, will only be complementary and will contribute to a faster spread, but they will probably not be the decisive factor. “That’s our general behavior, and that probably won’t change much.” stated.
Full hospitals are in danger
In addition to the number of positive numbers, the number of hospitalized is also growing. The Košice hospital is already reporting the same number of hospitalizations as it had last October. “It all depends on exactly how large a part of the population is not yet immunized, especially in risk groups (over 70 years, various accompanying diseases, etc.). as in the last wave, so there is a real threat of full hospitals, “ stated the mathematician.
Until recently, the trend looked more optimistic, but data from recent days shows a worse vision. “We will learn a lot in the coming weeks, because until now, the dominant mode of new cases has been their import from abroad. what can we expect in the coming months, ” he added.