Mathematician Kollár antivaxer: In a moment, instead of in front of Sabak’s house, you will meet him at work! – Topky.sk

At present, there are 23 orange districts in Slovakia, mainly in the east of Slovakia. There is a danger that we will already have the first red district on COVID vending machine, namely Rožňava. However, Richard Kollár’s mathematics is of particular concern in one graph, which shows the rate of hospitalization in comparison with the numbers of those who tested positive.

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“Until recently, the trend was very optimistic and pointed to approx. three times lower rate of hospitalizations due to the number of cases observed (combination of PCR and Ag with a weight of 2.86 for Ag) compared to the previous wave. However, this effect is gone. The tendency of delayed hospitalizations to incidence is almost identical to what we observed in the spring, “ Kollár pointed out on the social network. And according to him, this is wrong. This is because the infected people who end up in hospitals are now more younger and healthier than the practice at the end of the last wave. It was extremely strong in Slovakia.

No optimistic vision

“The only optimistic explanation is that at the time of growth we usually catch a smaller percentage of the positive out of all the positive in the population than at the time of the decline. This is often the case with rapid growth and poorer test availability. That would be true, of course, if we did not have a large number of tests on children in schools, “ Kollar explained his concerns. He pointed to studies that pointed out that the wave caused by the delta variant of the coronavirus may be worse in terms of hospitalization than it was during the alpha variant wave in winter and spring this year.

Source: FB / Richard Kollár

And we see this trend in our country as well. In addition, he expects that most of those who have virtually no immunity could end up in hospitals – that is, they have not been vaccinated and have not overcome a strong enough infection. And that can still be more than a million Slovaks, which can be a very serious problem. “7% of a million is 70,000. That’s a difference from 2%, that would be only 20,000. With an average length of hospitalization of 4 days, and a wave duration of say 120 days, that’s approx. 2000 hospitalized at once. On average. At peak times, the capacity of 4,000 that we had in the last wave may not be enough. This is the difference from an average of 660 and a peak up to 1500, “ Kollár stated that we should probably look at the practice from Israel, where they also recently estimated the same amount of non-immunized population.

Source: FB / Richard Kollár

“Although there are probably more interconnected groups of those non-immunized people and so it has a faster course there. However, this is not an optimistic vision, “ he pointed out. He also pointed to the trend of positivity of antigen tests, which could show where we will go in the third wave. According to him, we will reach the level of October 2020 in a moment. “It all depends on how many people have not yet been immunized in our country, and it remains to be seen. But this is the source of the best rough estimate of growth so far, approx. 6-8 weeks. However, the delta should be faster and we should see this in the data next week, which will already reflect the infections that occurred after September 1st, ” Kollár explained, according to which we will know what we are up to for about two weeks, however, the vision is not as good as we would expect, because about a percentage of the population is already infected, which people should take into account if they meet someone.

“In two weeks it will probably be 3%, at that time I would really recommend avoiding unnecessary contact, especially in interiors. Is it still time to be vaccinated now? Well, I don’t know, I rather think it’s too late. The vaccine will no longer have time to make antibodies by the time of the peak of the wave, so those who have decided to risk it will already risk it. Many will meet Peter Sabak not in front of his house, but at his work. ” concluded, pointing out that those who are not vaccinated will probably be treated by a Sabaka infectologist in a covid ward from a severe delta variant infection.