What is the balance after 20 years of war in Afghanistan?

(CNN Spanish) – With the departure of the last American soldier from Kabul on Monday, the war in Afghanistan has finally ended after 20 years of heavy fighting between the United States and its allies, and members of the Taliban movement, who have regained power.

This first conflict in the so-called “War on Terror” began in October 2001 with the launch of Operation Enduring Freedom by NATO, led by the US, and as a result of the terrorist attacks perpetrated by al Qaeda the 11 of September

The United States was looking for Osama bin Laden, al Qaeda leader and mastermind behind the attacks, believed to be hiding in Afghanistan and under the protection of the Taliban who ruled the country.

Between 2001 and 2014, the US and NATO fought the Taliban forces that had withdrawn to rural areas, at the same time training and arming the army of the new government in Afghanistan. Then Enduring Freedom was replaced by the smaller Operation Freedom Sentinel.

The pressure to end the long-running and ever-increasing war in Afghanistan less popular among Americans, it grew until in 2020 President Donald Trump initiated a dialogue with the Taliban in Doha, Qatar, in which it pledged to withdraw the last US troops no later than May 1 in exchange for guarantees that Afghanistan will not be used as a base for terrorist groups and that US troops would not be attacked during the withdrawal, among other points.

However, the new Afghan government and its army – trained and equipped by NATO – failed to support themselves on their own and quickly collapsed in the face of the Taliban advance and in the midst of the US withdrawal.

What happened?

Tim Weiner, an expert on Homeland Security, said this Monday to CNN that the fall of Kabul “is the work of four presidents and a long list of military leaders who deceived them.”

“Afghanistan was doomed to fall when former President Donald Trump and his Secretary of State Mike Pompeo capitulated to the Taliban in March 2020. For the past 18 months, it was not a question of whether the United States would lose, but when,” he said.

Weiner described the three historical failures, in his opinion, of the US intervention in the country.

The first was the result of “the deliberate ignorance of US military and intelligence officials, who did not understand the history and culture of Afghanistan.” “Anyone who has ever read a book about the country knew that no occupying army has ever dominated Afghanistan.”

“The second lasting failure was the counter-insurgency strategy pioneered by (General David) Petraeus and others. The US military and intelligence officers killed many thousands of Afghan civilians in their quest for victory. This does not win the hearts and minds of the population, “he said.

“The third was the deliberate outsourcing of ‘nation building’ to military contractors. The war was profitable for them. To keep the money flowing, they tended to portray their failures as successes. That pernicious practice also infected the reports of military and intelligence officials to the White House and Congress, “he concluded.

The human cost of war

Almost 20 years after arriving in Afghanistan, 2,442 soldiers Americans and 1,144 from different NATO countries, plus at least 3,846 contractors, have died to date.

According to estimates by the Watson Institute at Brown University, between October 2001 and April 2021 51,191 insurgents have died in the same period in Afghanistan, in addition to between 47,000 and 71,000 civilians, and between 66,000 and 73,000 Afghan security forces.

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (Unhcr) points out that there are currently 2.6 million Afghan refugees (2.2 million are in Iran and Pakistan) officially registered as such, while the number of internally displaced by the conflict amounts to 3.5 million, only 500,000 on 2021.

Although the situation of Afghans has deteriorated in recent times, UNHCR highlights that the country has been suffering from armed conflict, natural disasters, chronic poverty and food security for more than 40 years.

The economic cost

The United States contributed the majority of NATO troops in Afghanistan (at the peak, in 2011, there were 100,000 soldiers Americans in the country) and also with the bulk of spending.

According to the Watson Institute, between 2001 and 2021 the U.S. Departments of State and Defense officially spent $ S 978 billion in the war in Afghanistan.

There are, however, additional indirect expenses such as medical care for veterans of the conflict and the payment of interest on the money borrowed to finance operations, among others. Between 2001 and 2021, about US $ S would have been spent 6.4 trillion in the different wars that started after 9/11 in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria and Yemen, among other places. Of the total, US $ 2 billion correspond to official expenses of the Defense and State Departments

The United Kingdom, meanwhile, spent about US $ 30 billion (£ 21.315 billion) in Afghanistan, according to data from the Ministry of Defense until 2015, when the British presence in the country was considerably reduced after the end of Operation Enduring Freedom.

Germany spent about US $ 19,000 million between military expenses and other items, according to the state chain Deutsche Welle.

Germany and the United Kingdom were the main participants in the NATO coalition during the 20-year war, after the United States.