Covid-19: disaster in the West Indies, improvement in France, the curves to understand | The HuffPost – The HuffPost

CORONAVIRUS – On the one hand, a “face-to-face” re-entry. On the other hand, no re-entry at all. This Monday, August 30, many French people are gradually finding their way back to work – without any day of telework imposed on companies, announced the Minister of Labor Elisabeth Borne. But not everyone is in the same boat.

If for this second recovery since the advent of Covid-19, the pandemic seems to be contained in France, kept at bay by the vaccines, it continues its frantic race in the West Indies and in French Polynesia. The HuffPost takes stock of the available data.

Hospitals are held in metropolitan France

Nationally, the number of hospitalized patients is stable. They were 11,092 on August 29, 2021, according to Public Health France. This figure has only increased by 4% compared to last week. Hospital overload is still not a topical issue on the continent, but the tension remains high according to the territories.

Thus, far from having taken advantage of the summer season to get a little respite, hospitals in the South and South-West of France were particularly in demand this summer, receiving many Covid-19 patients on vacation. The departments of Corsica, Vaucluse, Var, Bouches-du-Rhône and even Alpes-Maritimes are the most affected.

On the Island of Beauty, 83% of intensive care beds are occupied. For the southern departments, the occupancy rate is around 74%. It tops out at 65% in the Southwest. But in the rest of France, these rates do not exceed 40%.

The vaccine effect, according to Véran

Hospitals are held in metropolitan France. The vaccine effect, according to Olivier Véran. In his last update on the epidemic, Thursday, August 26, the Minister of Health explained that the current vaccination coverage – 85% of those aged 18 and over have received at least one dose of vaccine – has made it possible to “get through the summer without reconfine ”.

Decreasing incidence …

By preventing most of the serious forms and reducing contamination, the vaccines limited the impact of Wave 4 on the hospital system. The return of vacationers and the commotion in offices and classrooms could shorten this relative lull.

But in the meantime, the indicators on the circulation of the epidemic are green at the national level. Among the 4 million tests carried out each week approximately – we have never tested so much – 2.9% are positive, against 4.4% at the height of the wave of contamination during the school holidays.

The number of people declared positive on D-3 is 18,400. It is high. But it is below the 25,000 reached in mid-August. Thus, the French population is becoming less and less infected. The national incidence decreases on August 15.

… even among young people

The incidence decreases in 10-29 year olds. This summer, however, this age group was the one that was contaminated the most. Young people are less vaccinated and have a lot of social connections.

If the decline observed throughout the month of August is very good news, epidemiologists fear an upsurge in cases, in particular because of the start of the school year, face-to-face, in closed places conducive to the circulation of the virus and while minors receive little or no vaccination.

The incidence among young people will be scrutinized by experts and decision-makers during the coming weeks. If these numbers start to rise again, it could herald a new wave in the general population.

Critical situation in overseas territories

In reality, the national balance sheet is inflated by the situation in the Overseas Territories. En Martinique, in Guadeloupe, the healthcare system is on the verge of collapse, despite the displacement of patients to the mainland. In these areas, less than 35% of the population has received at least one dose of the vaccine.

In Martinique, there are 5 times more people in intensive care than beds available in theory. The occupancy rate is 562% and it increases by 89% this week, compared to the previous one. Comparable results in Guadeloupe, with 267% of intensive care places occupied, and an increase of 29% over 7 days.

Yet these territories are confined. The start of the school year is postponed to September 13, as in certain areas in Guyana, which has an intensive care occupancy rate of 169, up 11%.

The last territory to have undergone an upsurge in the number of cases of Covid-19, Polynesia, an overseas community currently in a catastrophic situation, “a real health drama” according to the Scientific Council, however unaccustomed to superlatives.

The incidence rate is 3000 there. This is twice as much as in Martinique. Little vaccinated and with a higher proportion of people with comorbidities than in France, the Covid-19 mortality rate is 36 times higher there.

Relative good news, the confinement added to a vaccination coverage of around 40%, about twice as much as in Martinique and Guyana, on the other hand allows Réunion to hold out: the intensive care occupancy rate is 85 %, down 8.8% from last week.

See also on The HuffPost: Florian Philippot and the antivax in support of Didier Raoult in Paris