Hurricane in the Gulf? It is possible early next week

(CNN) – Everyone from Texas to Florida should be on the alert as a new potentially strong storm threatens to hit the northern Gulf Coast less than a week after Henri made landfall in New England.

A disorganized cluster of thunderstorms just north of South America has an 80% chance of becoming a tropical system in the next five days, the National Hurricane Center of the United States.

“Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive to development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend as the system moves northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea, near or across the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, and to the west of the Gulf of Mexico by Sunday, “said the hurricane center.

“It is still too early to know the details about the trajectory and intensity of this system,” said the National Weather Service in Houston in its discussion of the forecast. “Once this system actually forms, if it does, hopefully the model guide will better control its trajectory.”

Forecasters are watching this storm as the Atlantic hurricane season nears its peak. The 2021 season is expected to be above normal and to remain active for the next several months.

Texas? Louisiana? Computer models differ

It is impossible to know as soon as this storm might go, where it might cross into land, and how strong it might be. Once it is formed, the forecasting models would improve based on its center of circulation.

“Exactly where the center of rotation forms plays an important role in the evolution of a storm, so once it develops and the guide has a known starting point, the end point becomes clearer,” the office said. of the meteorological service in Houston, which last year had impacts from Beta and Laura and in 2017 suffered a record flooding from Harvey.

The American model has the latest storm developing and pushing toward the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, making landfall Tuesday along the northern Gulf Coast as a major hurricane. The European model makes landfall a little further west on Monday as a much weaker storm.

“The current GPS set shows that the tropical system is likely to affect our area between Sunday and Monday,” said the National Weather Service in Lake Charles, Louisiana. It alludes to the possibility of greater chances of precipitation, but stops by saying that the system will have a direct impact.

“Right now there is too much uncertainty as to the intensity and exact location of the impact. Forecasts extend from Mexico to Florida,” the Lake Charles weather service.

Adds his Houston counterpart: “If you monitor model cycles on social media, don’t make too much of an emphasis on individual model runs. There will be a lot of changes to these from run to run and model to model in the coming days as that the details keep changing. “

Saharan dust does not calm the tropics

The tropics are still bubbling even though there is quite a bit of Saharan dust in the atmosphere. Saharan dust normally suppresses tropical activity, but notably does not affect the entire Atlantic / Caribbean.

“Actually, storms are likely to form at the southern end of the Sahara dust cloud,” said Bowen Pan of the department of atmospheric sciences at Colorado State University.

In fact, there is a significant contrast in temperature and wind between areas with and without dust, with more development on the southern side of the dust, Pan said.