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Kollár said it clearly and loudly: Isolation from the delta? Extremely naive idea! – Topky


New Zealand, Australia, Vietnam, Taiwan – great examples of long-term pandemic success. The world should have set an example from them. Today, however, they look at it from a completely different perspective, time has run out on them as well, ” began his status as a mathematician Kollár on the social network. According to him, it is extremely naive if someone thinks that it can be isolated from such an infectious variant as delta. This is not possible anywhere – even where drapes are used or where coronavirus measures are effective.

Source: Getty Images

However, stopping the delta is not helped by testing, neither lockdown nor drapes. Only one single weapon helps, and that is the immunization of the population. Either the most effective vaccine given multiple times, or the infection itself (eg in the previous wave), “ the mathematician explained, adding that an unpleasant period awaited the country where the waves of the coronavirus were not so strong. According to him, it is unbelievable that they did not expect that an extremely infectious variant of the virus would come and nothing but vaccination would help them in the fight.

Kollár said it clearly

Source: Getty Images

Vaccination? After what

The countries mentioned above have underestimated vaccination and are now paying for it. For example, in New Zealand only 20 percent of the population is currently fully vaccinated, in Australia it is 28 percent, in Taiwan only less than 5 percent but more than 40% in a single dose. However, according to Kollar, more than 78 percent of the population in Singapore is fully vaccinated, so it has a chance to “lick out” of the problems.

Even there, however, they are likely to settle naturally soon. China also has a chance to vaccinate quickly, but probably with less effective vaccines. There it will also be interesting to watch in the fall, behind the water are not yet certain, “ Kollár explained. He added that Slovakia is not vaccinating as quickly as expected. “For what? We can handle without vaccines. Also, we had a big last wave. But we don’t know yet how big it was and who hit it all. “ stated that the answer to the question will be known in the coming months.

Kollár said it clearly

Source: Getty Images

And that’s exactly what the numbers of infections, hospitalizations and deaths measure. According to Kollár, it is unbelievable that despite the availability of information about vaccines, there are still two completely opposite camps. The one thinks that vaccines are evil, and they are the threat, not COVID. The latter thinks that tough measures for the next six months, a year, two years or more can stop the delta wave in our country. That you can hide from her again behind a respirator. That it is enough not to let children go to schools, “ Kollar pointed out.

We never got the numbers

As he continued, both camps have the same problem – and the fact that they do not know how to work properly with statistics, especially with the so-called. rare events. According to Kollár, it is not easy to evaluate very small numbers, and in Slovakia we have never been able to distinguish between someone stealing 5 million and 5 billion. Too many zeros. And so it is with small numbers. 0.001 or 0.000001 simply look similar. And on television or on the Internet often even the same. Yes, it’s not easy. And even more complex percolation phenomena, or so-called extreme statistics no longer work as simply and intuitively as the Gaussian curve, in the context of which we are usually taught to think, ” stated.

Kollár said it clearly

Source: Getty Images

As he subsequently added, Slovaks are constantly asking about averages or medians, but according to Kollár, the pandemic has been governed by extreme statistics for a long time. In it, averages have almost no informative value, so Slovakia has few options for what to do with what awaits us and will not pass. No matter what tough measures we introduce, we can only prolong the wave a little. This is, of course, important, as we need to ensure that we do not again exceed the capacity of hospitals, which is really threatening somewhere in Slovakia. But that’s where our options end, ” he wrote and finally called on people to be vaccinated as soon as possible.


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