Legislative in Israel: ever more to the right, Benjamin Netanyahu dreams of revenge

Ousted from power by a motley coalition in June 2021, Benjamin Netanyahu is determined to take his revenge during the Israeli legislative elections on November 1. To achieve his ends, the former Prime Minister is ready for anything, “even to surround himself with cumbersome allies and to govern with the extreme right”. Decryption with David Khalfa, researcher at the Observatory of North Africa and the Middle East of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. On November 1, Israeli voters will return to the polls to try to get the country out of the political impasse once again during the legislative elections, the fifth such election in three and a half years. , fixed after the dissolution of Parliament voted by the deputies on June 30, after the loss of the majority of the ruling coalition, opposes almost the same two blocs that faced each other during the March 2021 legislative elections: a right-wing camp dominated by Benjamin Netanyahu, and a heterogeneous camp known as the alternation, which wants to prevent the former Prime Minister from regaining power. In 2021, the anti-Netanyahu bloc, headed by nationalist leader Naftali Bennett and centrist Yaïr Lapid, will current Prime Minister, had won this bet by forming a coalition made up of two leftist parties, two from the centre, three from the right and the conservative Arab Raam formation. Eighteen months later, Benjamin Netanyahu, who became leader of the opposition after having been in power from 2009 to 2021 and between 1996 and 1999, and still prosecuted for corruption in several cases, dreams of only one thing: to take revenge. “Israeli political life is always on the same line of fracture, namely a confrontation between two pro and anti-Netanyahu blocs, explains to France 24 David Khalfa, researcher at the Observatory of North Africa and the Middle East of the Jean-Jaurès Foundation. The balance of power between the two blocs has hardly changed since the last election, even if there is a relative advantage in favor of Benjamin Netanyahu compared to his opponents, because his bloc seems more solid and united behind the leader while the camp opposite presents itself this time in dispersed rows”. An alliance even more on the right “even to surround himself with cumbersome allies and to govern with the extreme right, which would be a first in the history of Israel”, underlines David Khalfa. “Benjamin Netanyahu crossed the Rubicon by supporting an alliance of parties extreme right, which his right-wing predecessors never did because they considered them infrequent, racist and anti-democratic, continues the researcher. But there, the former Prime Minister helped to ensure that the religious nationalist right of Bezalel Smotrich allied with the extreme right kahanist of the sulphurous Itamar Ben Gvir, condemned in 2007 for incitement to racism, which allows him, theoretically, to avoid losing the slightest vote on the right. “This strategic calculation ensures him a reserve of votes likely to allow the formation of a majority coalition with 61 seats out of the 120 in the Knesset, the Israeli Parliament. “Benjamin Netanyahu’s only compass today is his political survival, which he will use as a lever to escape prison,” summarizes David Khalfa. But his alliance with figures considered as foils by the American administration risks costing him expensive, politically and diplomatically.” Depending on such allies on a daily basis will be complicated for Benjamin Netanyahu, a liberal secularist, believes David Khalfa. If he returns to power, he will still have to maneuver between these ultra-Orthodox allies and extremist figures defending a much harder line than his vis-à-vis the Palestinians, the Israeli Arabs and the international community, and the other, the strategic allies of Israel, which are the United States and the European Union, the country’s main trading partner”. An alliance that the former Prime Minister does not seem to fully assume, but without which he cannot “At a meeting held on October 18, Benjamin Netanyahu refused to share the stage with Itamar Ben Gvir, because he did not want to be photographed with him, says David Khalfa. The progress of this extreme right, which is credited in all the polls with 14 seats, which would represent the third force in the Knesset, is at the expense of the Likud, which it is siphoning off by cannibalizing part of its electorate. .A political future dependent on the Arab vote? local, the participation rate of Israeli Arabs will be decisive for the political future of the former Prime Minister. An opinion shared by David Khalfa: “Arabs represent nearly 21% of the Israeli population and 16.5 of the voters, and if they mobilize en masse, it could cost him dearly electorally, he warns. The last two polls released Wednesday by Israeli media show much the same picture, with a right-wing bloc around Netanyahu credited with between 59 and 60 seats, and the so-called change bloc without Arab parties at 53 seats, and with Arab parties at 62, a majority for Yair Lapid.” This certainly explains why, according to an Israeli press tally, Benjamin Netanyahu’s team spends more on campaign messages written in Arabic than all Arab parties put together. . With the hope of diverting them from the opposing camp.” It’s a 180% turnaround from his 2015 campaign, when he sounded the tocsin on the theme ‘Arabs are voting en masse’ to electrify his electoral base. and invite him to go to the polls brandishing the threat of an Arab demographic submersion and a subsequent seizure of power by the Arab parties in the Knesset, recalls David Khalfa. Benjamin Netanyahu has also recognized and regretted the inconsiderate language deviations in his recently released autobiography, hence this all-out digital campaign intended to seduce the Arab electorate by emphasizing the issues that are at the heart of its historic claims”. Namely the fight against organized crime, the reduction of socio-economic gaps with the Jewish majority, access to employment and property…In addition to the Arab vote, Jewish voters in development cities will also be decisive explains the researcher: “These are poor towns located in the middle of the Negev desert, or on the outskirts of Jerusalem or Tel Aviv, whose electorate was captive to the right, the Likud in particular, and which has mobilized much less in favor of Netanyahu in recent years,” said David Khalfa. agne very different from the previous ones when he was the outgoing Prime Minister. “Compared to previous polls, it is campaigning positively and substantively, focusing on purchasing power and childcare places, to try to win back the hearts and minds of Israelis who are hit hard by the Inflation, decrypts David Khalfa.The emphasis placed on this dimension which was completely absent from previous electoral confrontations, during which Netanyahu’s speech was mainly centered around classic neo-populist rhetoric denouncing a conspiracy by the left and the media against him and an instrumentalization of justice for political purposes to achieve it”. A change of tone which materializes, according to David Khalda, the observation of the failure of his own socio-economic policy since he has been in power for year. A paradox that voters could make him pay a second time.