The Italy that Giorgia Meloni inherits

The shadow of a war in the heart of Europe and a growing nuclear threat as major international political challengesInflation triggered internally puts the country’s productive fabric in check A winter with an even harsher energy scenario, price increases and instability in the Italian market was not expected to vote this fall, but the usual ways of an ever more unpredictable policy ended with the Draghi government this July and gave way to a new episode. The leader of the far-right Brothers of Italy party, Giorgia Meloni, won the last general election on September 25, accompanied by the center-right coalition. She now leads the newly appointed new government that has been formed almost a month after the vote. But the cold winter that awaits Giorgia Meloni as premier is not easy. There are three great challenges that await him: managing the recovery funds after the pandemic, of which Italy is the largest beneficiary in Europe; support for a war in the heart of Europe and an uncontrolled inflation that threatens Italian families and puts at real risk of blackout an Italian productive fabric, largely made up of small businesses, literally unable to cope with , to gas and electricity bills this fall, which in many cases are four times what they were a year ago. Since the start of the conflict this past February, things have taken a 180º turn, leaving behind the Italy that Draghi led in national and international harmony. Now the war and its development in recent weeks do not bode well for a good winter, neither in Italy nor, therefore, for Meloni. It is the point from which all the economic and energy derivatives start. Giorgia Meloni has wanted to maintain a clearly Atlanticist position and in line with the EU regarding the conflict. She has repeated it in the campaign and, recently, as a future prime minister, she has wanted to condemn the recent attacks that the capital, kyiv, has suffered. “Hours of apprehension for Ukraine. Putin, fighting on the battlefield, is deliberately attacking civilian targets in many Ukrainian cities. Each of these missiles further isolates Russia and strengthens our belief that we are defending those who fight for their freedom,” she shared in a note. The war and the great international instability are closely linked to the two major problems that the leader will have to manage internally: inflation and the possible energy crisis. Neither of the two is now seen as a transitory phenomenon in Europe, both are part of a problem that is likely to worsen in the coming months and that will require far-reaching measures at the community and national level, leaving Giorgia Meloni with the extremely complex task of dealing with one of the most delicate moments of the Republic.‼️Giorgia Meloni: “Putin is deliberately colpendo obiettivi civili in molte città ucraine. He pumped his uomini, donne e bambini. Ognuno di questi missili subsequently isolates Russia and rafforza la nostra convinzione di differ chi si batte per la propria libertà”— Pietro Salvatori (@PietroSalvatori) October 10, 2022 The measures that have been taken up to now, carried out by the Draghi Government, are aimed at the so-called ‘expensive bollette’, bonus to reduce the impact of bills to families and businesses. But Stefano Caselli, Professor of Economics at the Bocconi University of Milan, explains how this aid cannot solve the great economic problem that the country now has. “This new government has to wait for Europe. The only possible path is to be even more European than ever, and it is paradoxical in a party, Brothers of Italy, that was anti-European on more than one occasion. But we are talking about very complex issues such as managing energy and raw materials for which only an agreement of the member countries is useful”, he says, indirectly referring to measures such as the ‘gas price ceiling’. Giorgia Meloni has worked during these weeks, while waiting for the commission to form a Government, in line with the outgoing Executive, for a new “aid decree” -in which the famous expensive bollette is included-, it would be the fourth, in the line of cushion the effect of energy inflation. “The aid they have given can be approved again, but they cannot be given indefinitely, it has to be a structural European measure,” adds the expert. “The priority is to curb gas speculation,” says Meloni in a recent public appearance, already as future premier. But, as the expert indicates, the great battle is in Brussels where yesterday Mario Draghi, in his last participation in the European Council, took steps, along with the 27, to intervene in the gas market. Meloni: “Sosterremo ogni azione contro la speculazione sull’energia. “Stiamo lavorando prevalent sul expensive-bollette, bisogna capire come affrontare i prossimi tre mesi”#ANSA https://t.co/vzi4G8rUSf— Agenzia ANSA (@Agenzia_Ansa) 4 October 2022 The effect that inflation is having on Italian society can increase, exponentially as bills increase, a malaise that feels like the country is about to explode somewhere. electricity has risen 59% in the last quarter alone and even worse data is expected for gas, which will be known in a few weeks since now the measurement system is changing Last spring inflation began to rise and it was common to see how some Businesses lamented these rises, now, with inflation at 8.7%, some businessmen are directly unable to afford the expense.In the south of Italy, in Puglia, a hotel chain closed at the beginning of the month and, in the north , it is common v er television interviews where factories are forced to close due to bills of thousands of euros. Giorgia Meloni found the Italian business fabric as an accomplice during the campaign, in her speeches she spoke to them and repeated that mantra that “dignity is obtained only through work”, now it is there that she can find her first fires in an Italy with the water up to the neck. During these weeks there have been some demonstrations, still minority, against the payment of the bills that the participants maintained “impossible”. The most significant concentration by the unions was last Saturday, October 8, when the anniversary of the neo-fascist assault on the headquarters of one of the main Italian unions, the CGIL, was celebrated, which organized a massive meeting in the center of Rome . The great concern of the unions is in the sectors most dependent on energy which, as we have mentioned, pay bills with increasing fatigue which, if they continue the trend forecast this fall, threaten to cause the closure of many small and big enterprises. They cannot afford energy savings, it would mean stopping production. The secretary of the CGIL, Maurizio Landini, explained: “this situation runs the risk of being explosive on a social level and concrete responses are needed”. The estimated growth for Italy for this year is still positive: the 4.2% GDP growth estimated by the European Commission has been lowered to 2.4%, but at least it is maintained. What is shown is a clear slowdown always threatened by the great battle horse of the transalpine country, the debt, now at 159% of GDP, one of the highest in the world. Now the risk premium is at 231 points and no one can forget when he touched his record in a Berlusconi government, exactly eleven years ago. “On the debt Italy cannot make a single mistake, we already have so much because of the pandemic and, once that phase is over, the ECB always buys less. The Government has to be as credible as possible and I think that Meloni has understood this perfectly, otherwise investors will run away at the moment”, says the economist Stefano Caselli. For the economic Ministry, the line is continuous with Draghi and will be in charge of Giancarlo Giorgetti, exponent of the League, and already Minister of Economic Development in the last legislature. New Italian government to be sworn in tomorrow 10am – Giorgia Meloni as premier Giorgetti (Lega) finance minister Tajani (Forza Italia) foreign minister.— Maria Tadeo (@mariatad) October 21, 2022 It is this scenario that explains a Giorgia Meloni who will not be able to being a leader of the extreme right clinging to her ideas and to what she calls “homeland, church and family.” She is a leader who will have to face a series of difficulties in the country that will force her to get to work immediately. After the transfer of powers at her inauguration ceremony, set for tomorrow, Sunday, the first Council of Ministers will be held. “The shadow of the recession is there, estimates are being reduced and if inflation grows and instability continues, growth could be equal to zero before the end of the year. I do not believe that this Government can take measures such as the flat tax, included in its program, there will be no time for improvisation or test measures, the emergency will be the protagonist in the coming months”, concludes the professor of Economics at the Bocconi University of Milan.