Colder-than-normal winter expected in a dozen states amid rising energy costs

Natural gas prices hit records 0:58 (CNN) — A dozen states could experience colder-than-normal temperatures this winter, according to forecasts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). ) published this Thursday morning. This could mean an increase in energy consumption in the northern United States, amid rising energy costs.
“It takes energy to heat the house,” Andrew Dessler, a professor of atmospheric sciences at Texas A&M University, who was not involved in the NOAA report, told CNN. “So the colder it gets, the more energy we need for heating. And that’s bad news in a world where energy is limited by things like the war in Ukraine.” People from Oregon to Michigan could feel a hit to their wallets when they get their energy bills, as temperatures are expected to be below normal during what is already the coldest part of the year. Temperature forecast for winter December 2022 to February 2023. “Putin cut off Russian gas for Europe, but they still need gas,” Dessler told CNN. “So they’re going to buy American gas. That’s going to drive up the price for American consumers. So that’s definitely bad news for American consumers.” In cities like Minneapolis, Seattle, Milwaukee, Wisconsin and Portland, Oregon, where the forecast calls for below-normal winter temperatures, the concern is how people will react to rising consumer prices. “Since the price is going to go up, and people are going to run out of money, hopefully people are going to lower their thermostats, rather than there is a shortage,” Dessler said. One area where this may be easier is the southern US, where temperatures are expected to be above normal. Even some of the big cities in the Northeast can take a breather. Boston, New York, Philadelphia and Baltimore have a 33% to 40% chance of having above normal temperatures this winter. The forecast also sees drought-affected areas such as southern California, Texas, Oklahoma, and the lower Mississippi River basin receive below-average rainfall during the winter months. Precipitation forecast for the winter, December 2022 to February 2023. “Drought conditions are now present in approximately 59% of the country, but portions of the western US and southern Great Plains will remain the hardest hit this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the operational forecasting branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “With the La Niña weather pattern still in effect, drought conditions could spread to the Gulf Coast as well.” Oklahoma, Texas and Arkansas will also face increased wildfire danger in the coming months. Drought is expected to hit the lower and middle Mississippi Valley this winter. This area, already experiencing historically low water levels, is expected to see below-normal rainfall this winter. Soil moisture will pick up in the upper Mississippi basin, but since that doesn’t impact river levels, a significant improvement in those levels is not expected during the season. Large-scale weather forecasts are strongly influenced by the effect of La Niña versus El Niño. At this time, La Niña is in effect. Basically, this means that “equatorial sea surface temperatures are below average over most of the Pacific Ocean,” according to the forecast center. The prediction center put a 75% chance that La Niña would continue through this winter. This will be the third consecutive winter that La Niña has influenced the overall weather pattern. La Niña and Polar Vortex Drive Forecast La Niña is a phenomenon that typically creates drier conditions across much of the South and wetter conditions in the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Ohio Valley. La Niña also brings warmer temperatures to much of the South and Mid-Atlantic, and cooler temperatures to the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Typical pattern for the La Niña phenomenon. The Climate Prediction Center forecasts a 75% chance of La Niña during the northern hemisphere winter (December to February). “La Niña is an important factor, but I think whether we actually have a cold winter or a warm winter in the United States depends much more on the state of the polar vortex,” said Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasts at Atmospheric and Environmental Research, a climate consultant. Cohen cites the recent early snow record in the Midwest as an example. “That’s related to this stretching of the polar vortex. I think even if we have a strong polar vortex in general, you would expect that we’re going to get these stretching events. So we may have a very sharp turn into cold weather, but we don’t It lasts a lot”. The polar vortex is a circulation of strong upper-level winds that normally circle the north pole, moving in a counterclockwise direction, making it a polar low pressure system. Cohen also points out that we are seeing more weather swings in the winter, in terms of temperatures. “I think with climate change, we’ve seen increased variability in winter. So whether we have a warm winter or a cold winter, I think we’re going to see a kind of ping pong or windshield wiper effect of extreme temperatures.” . But even if you live in the southern part of the US, which is more likely to have a warmer winter overall, there will still be short-term cold snaps to plan for. “You always have to be prepared,” says Dessler. “Even without seeing the forecast, I know we have to be prepared for a cold winter, because it can happen even in a warming world.”