War in Tigray: “The African Union has the opportunity to act”

Published on: 10/18/2022 – 17:55 As fighting between Tigrayan rebels and loyal forces intensifies in the town of Shire, in northern Ethiopia, the actors of the international community have unanimously condemned the violence. Beyond the indignation, are these diplomacies still capable of silencing the guns after two years of conflict? Some say so. The death toll of the war in Tigray is unknown. In the shadow of the media, however, fighting rages in this region of northern Ethiopia where journalists are not welcome. After a five-month truce raising hopes for negotiations, the conflict that has pitted the Ethiopian federal government against the rebel authorities in Tigray since November 2020 resumed on August 24, further distancing hopes for peace in the region. The only certainty: the violence left thousands dead, millions displaced and plunged the north of the country into famine and chaos. Voices are raised regularly to call for an end to the conflict. The international community was particularly alarmed this weekend by the situation in Shire, a town in Tigray which had around 100,000 inhabitants before the war, and which is in the grip – it was said on Sunday – of intense fighting. The “nightmare” It was the African Union that was first affected. As of Sunday, the chairman of the AU Commission, the Chadian Moussa Faki Mahamat, called for “an immediate and unconditional ceasefire”, saying he was “seriously worried about the information on the intensification of the fighting”. Following in his footsteps, the UN secretary general also called on Monday for “the immediate withdrawal and disengagement from Ethiopia of the Eritrean armed forces”, which are supporting the Ethiopian federal troops in Tigray. He asked “all parties” to allow the passage of humanitarian aid, the delivery of which the UN has suspended since the resumption of fighting in late August. “The situation in Ethiopia is getting out of control, continued the UN chief. The violence and destruction are reaching alarming levels”, underlining the “terrible price paid by civilians” and the “nightmare” experienced by the Ethiopian population. Calls for a truce from Washington and the European Union (EU) soon followed. “We remain deeply concerned by reports of increased violence, loss of life and indiscriminate attacks directed at civilians,” State Department spokesman Vedant Patel said on Monday. American. The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, for his part deplored “the dramatic escalation of violence and the irreparable loss of human life”. These calls to stop the fighting were followed up with no effect. On Tuesday, October 18, a statement from the rebel forces command said that the Ethiopian Federal Army had finally “taken control of the towns of Shire, Alamata and Korem without urban fighting”. “African problem, African solution” Does this mean that the actors of the international community are powerless in the face of the conflict? “No, sweeps aside Patrick Ferras, doctor in geopolitics of the African Horn and president of the African Strategies association. The United States is indirectly putting pressure on Ethiopia through economic sanctions via the IMF and the banks world for two years. But this is not enough to put an end to the conflict. Above all, we need real political will with the means. And the means exist.” For this connoisseur of the Horn of Africa, it is above all up to the African Union to act. “To African problem, African solution. So far, the organization has been ineffective. It took him a year to appoint an emissary who will probably not change anything at the end of the hostilities. On paper, however, the The AU has the opportunity to act. The first thing to do is to get Eritrea out of the conflict by deploying a peacekeeping force on the border between the two countries. The Tigrayans will have only one enemy, he This will make it easier for them to negotiate without feeling trapped on all sides.” Especially since on the ground, “Abiy Ahmed has gradually left Eritrea the leadership in the conflict, adds Éloi Ficquet, teacher-researcher at Ehess, (School of Advanced Studies in Social Sciences). The war has clearly turned into a confrontation between Tigrayans and Eritreans.”According to observers, the solutions to the war are also in the hands of the European Union. “The African Union is 35% funded by African states and 65% by external partners, including the European Union, emphasizes Patrick Ferras. The EU can influence the conflict by threatening, for example, to cut its financial support to the African Union if the latter does not deploy a force on the ground.” “A serious error” But Europe, “captured by the war in Ukraine and its energy problems, is hardly mobilized by the Ethiopian conflict, continues the researcher. In his speech to the ambassadors, Emmanuel Macron did not mention Ethiopia only at the very end of his remarks to say that he saw it as a country of the future, without addressing the war that is being played out there”. It must be said that the very weak media presence in the region does not encourage Westerners to look into the fate of Ethiopians. “The absence of journalists does not allow the facts to be established, which creates a blurring of information constantly called into question by the two parties to the conflict, continues Éloi Ficquet. It is a war without image , as there are others in Yemen, for example. All these factors do not allow to create public mobilization”. However, this lack of interest constitutes “a serious error, believes Patrick Ferras. The capitals still have reports to accurately assess the situation. In a few years, when we judge the atrocities committed, Africans will surely blame the Europeans and the French for having let it be. And they will be right.” As for the United Nations, they seem to be well and truly unable to act. As long as China and Russia – permanent members of the Security Council along with the United States, France and the United Kingdom – oppose resolutions aimed at intervening in the conflict, the organization will not have the free rein to intervene. Dialogue? For its part, the African Union, hitherto reluctant to any military intervention in the conflict, is counting more on a dialogue between the two parties. Officially, the two belligerents are also open to discussions. The government recalled on Monday that it was ready for talks… While affirming that it wanted to continue its military operations aimed at regaining “immediate control of all airports, other federal infrastructures and installations” in Tigray. A condition that so soon made the opponents react. “It is a clear indication that the government and its ally will do everything to carry out their genocidal intention against the people of Tigray,” retorted Getachew Reda, spokesman for the rebel authorities in Tigray, to AFP. “The two enemies are the exact opposite, asserts Patrick Ferras. Everyone hopes for a military victory to negotiate to their advantage. The will to do battle on the ground remains very strong”. A brutal reality far removed from the “humanist boasting which above all reflects the desire of international diplomacy to wait for this very complex conflict which seems inextricable to end with the designation of a winner”, adds Éloi Ficquet.