Budget: what you need to know about the (coming) use of 49.3 by the government

Published on: 10/18/2022 – 16:15Modified on: 10/18/2022 – 16:19 The government should activate article 49.3 of the Constitution on Wednesday to adopt without a vote the revenue part of its finance bill for 2023. The Nupes and the National Rally promise a motion of censure in return, but these have little chance of overthrowing Élisabeth Borne. This time, the date is almost known. The ax of 49.3 has been on everyone’s mind since the start of the examination of the Finance Bill (PLF) for 2023 in the National Assembly. MPs knew the executive would use it, but were waiting to find out when. Tuesday, October 18, the government spokesperson, Olivier Véran, put an end to the suspense: the use of 49.3 will be “probably for tomorrow”, Wednesday, the last day of examination of the expenditure part of the PLF, he said. assured on France 2.”To find a compromise, it takes two: the group presidents [d’opposition] said from the start that they would not vote for the finance bill. The blockage does not come from us, and you have shown it well”, declared the Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, during a meeting, Tuesday morning, with the Renaissance deputies, according to comments reported by a participant. However, “We have to give the debate a chance, especially since the French don’t like 49.3 very much. These tools, such as the requisition [dans les raffineries en grève, NDLR], must be used with caution”, she added. >> To read: Budget: the government in embarrassment in the midst of social turbulence What is the 49.3 that the government is about to brandish? Article 49 paragraph 3 of the French Constitution allows the government to have a text adopted without a vote by Parliament, which stipulates: “The Prime Minister may, after deliberation by the Council of Ministers, engage the responsibility of the government before the National Assembly on the vote on a finance or social security financing bill. In this case, this project is considered adopted, unless a motion of censure, tabled within the following twenty-four hours, is voted under the conditions provided for in the preceding paragraph. The Prime Minister may also use this procedure for another bill or a bill per session.”The government of Elisabeth Borne, which does not have an absolute majority in the National Assembly to vote for its bill finance law, can therefore adopt it despite everything by drawing 49.3. The opposition can however counter it by voting a motion of censure which would lead to the fall of the government. But if no motion is adopted, the text of the law is A first for Elisabeth Borne, but probably not the last 49.3 is a constitutional weapon at the disposal of the government which allows a “forced passage” when its majority in the National Assembly is narrow, even relative. of François Mitterrand’s second seven-year term (1988-1995), the Prime Minister at the time, Michel Rocard, having only a relative majority in the National Assembly, between 1988 and 1991, used 49.3 28 times to get your texts adopted your law. This is the absolute record – and by far – of the entire Fifth Republic. Conversely, in the event of an absolute and comfortable majority, there is no need for the government, most of the time, to use 49-3. During Emmanuel Macron’s first five-year term (2017-2022), only one use was identified, by Édouard Philippe, in 2020, on pension reform. The Prime Minister had an absolute majority but the opposition, in particular La France insoumise, had tabled a very large number of amendments with the aim of obstructing the text. Some heads of government have never used 49-3: this is notably the case of Lionel Jospin (1997-2002) and François Fillon (2007-2012).>> To read: Energy savings: first challenge climate change systemÉlisabeth Borne, meanwhile, should be required to use it regularly. The last legislative elections only gave it a relative majority. It therefore seems unlikely that the Prime Minister will manage to pass all of her bills without a hitch. But unlike Michel Rocard, she will have to make choices: the 2008 constitutional reform limits the use of 49.3 to a single text during the same parliamentary session – ordinary sessions run from the beginning of October to the end of June –, excluding projects finance or social security financing law. Oppositions divided on a motion of censure When the Prime Minister or the Prime Minister uses 49.3, the opposition has 24 hours to table a motion of censure, which must collect the signature of at least one person to be submitted to the vote. less than a tenth of the deputies, or 58 deputies. Only the votes in favor of the motion of censure are then counted, which can only be adopted by a majority of the 577 members of the National Assembly, ie a minimum of 289 votes. If the motion is passed, the text is rejected and the government overthrown. In 87 uses of 49.3 by the government since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958, no motion of censure has been adopted by the deputies. On paper, the composition of the current National Assembly could change the situation, the oppositions united having 326 votes. But in practice, it is difficult to bring together on the same text oppositions that everything opposes. On the Nupes side, most of the 151 rebellious deputies, socialists, ecologists and communists do not intend to vote for a motion of censure tabled by the far right. Marine Le Pen meanwhile said, Sunday, October 16, that the 89 deputies of the National Rally would not “a priori” vote for the motion tabled by Nupes. As for the 62 Republican and related deputies, they seem reluctant to bring down the government, not wanting to be considered by their voters as responsible for what they would consider a disorder. But nothing indicates that these oppositions could not join forces in the future. The threat of a motion of censure indeed hovers over the pension reform currently in consultation.