Geographers call for “urgent” measures to adapt to more floods, droughts and rising sea levels in Spain

The AGE warns of a greater risk of floods, droughts, heat waves, erosion and desertification, a consequence of climate change They ask to reduce water consumption, especially in agriculture: “We have an agricultural system decoupled from our climatic reality” At the end of century, the sea level can rise “up to 80 cm or 1 meter in the least demanding emission reduction scenarios” How does climate change affect the risk of flooding in Spain? And to the risk of drought? And to the risk of erosion? How does climate change affect coastal areas? These are questions that the Spanish Geography Association (AGE) has put on the table, which warns of “the urgency of adopting adaptation measures” to face the increase in these risks in Spain. Disaster Risk, which is celebrated this Thursday. Expert geographers in this field warn of the risks that Spain faces as a result of climate change and explain how we should adapt to them. They ask to do it “urgently”. Because if the 2001 IPCC report already “warned of the increased risk of hurricanes, drought, heat waves, river and coastal flooding”, the latest ones that have been published “not only confirm the trend, but also indicate that the Spanish territory is It is among the areas worldwide in which the growing problems related to the risk of disasters will become more palpable”. The way of raining changes, more risk of floods “Climate change alters and accelerates the hydrological cycle”, explains Ana María Camarasa, Professor of Physical Geography at the University of Valencia. What does that mean? That there are more and more intense episodes of rain, for example, and that is transferred to the rivers. “When the intensity is so high, the infiltration capacity of the soil is exceeded, a lot of flow is concentrated in the riverbed and large peak flows can be produced that do not fit inside the channel and that increase the risk of flooding,” he warns. she. But sometimes it is not even necessary for the river to overflow its banks for there to be a flood. “In situ” floods are becoming more and more frequent, produced simply by the water that falls when it rains, by the intensity of the rain.” The way it rains is changing and this increases the risk of flooding, he explains. Also because “there is a change in the seasonality of the rain: the intense summer rains are moving into autumn, coinciding with the abundant autumn rains. And this sum of intensity and quantity makes flood risk management much more difficult”, warns the geographer. This is also confirmed by Jorge Olcina, professor of Regional Geographic Analysis at the University of Alicante. “Climate change is leading to a change in the way it rains, especially in the Mediterranean, where the rains are becoming more intense and concentrated over time, in such a way that they generate more harm than good.” The question is: what can we do about this increased risk of flooding? Do not occupy flood zones, comply with the lawOlcina is clear: “Strictly comply with the laws of land use planning”. But not only. It also calls for “avoiding the occupation of flood-prone areas.” Because he denounces that “in the last 20 years, we have witnessed a fairly intense occupation of spaces at risk of flooding, transformed for urban uses or for infrastructures.” Camarasa explains that “a river needs time and space, instead of so much channeling”, so it is “better to leave it free space so that it readjusts its shape to the new conditions of faster and more intense floods”. And he insists: “A great job of territorial planning is needed.” More frequent and severe droughts Another risk that increases with climate change is that of suffering more droughts, which “we already know will be more frequent and severe in the coming years,” recalls Pilar Paneque, professor of Human Geography at the Pablo de Olavide of Seville. “Spain is especially vulnerable to this risk.” Paneque warns of two types of drought: meteorological, linked to rainfall, and agricultural, linked to rising temperatures that increase water evaporation and dry soil. Both will increase in the coming years, she explains, and with them, the heat waves, which will be increasingly “earlier and longer”. Using less water in agriculture This will imply, she warns, “less availability of water resources, something that has not yet been assumed in planning.” And to face this scenario, there is no other option but to reduce water consumption in our country, “applying a preventive approach to the droughts that are yet to come.” Paneque places special emphasis on reducing agricultural consumption. “Taking into account that agriculture consumes between 75% and 90% of the water in Spain, a broad political and social debate is needed on the logic of this use.” This geographer expert in drought assures that “we have an agricultural system decoupled from our climatic reality, and that makes us more vulnerable to droughts”. Sea level rise: 1 meter by the end of the century? But Spain faces another serious problem, moreover, with its 8,000 kilometers of coastline. “There is a clear scientific consensus that the sea level has risen in the last hundred years by around 20 centimeters,” warns José Ojeda, professor of Physical Geography at the University of Seville. And looking to the future, the models estimate a range of increases for the end of the century that is more than worrying. It goes “from 25 to 30 centimeters in the most demanding emission reduction scenarios, up to 80 cm or 1 meter in the less demanding emission reduction scenarios”. What will this rise in sea level mean in coastal areas? “The risks of permanent flooding, the frequency and intensity of extreme marine phenomena or the risks of coastal erosion will increase,” among others. And what can be done? Ojeda points out short-term measures, starting with “better understanding the areas most exposed” to this risk and “adopt protection measures”. In the long term, he even speaks of the “need to set back the coastline, with the cost that this entails”. More erosion, and abandonment of crops And this is not all. Climate change will also bring greater erosion and desertification of our territory. Because, on the one hand, there is less rain, it increases the frequency and duration of heat waves and droughts. And on the other hand, as intense rains increase, “they impact dry and unprotected soil and produce more erosion,” explains Asunción Romero, professor of Physical Geography at the University of Murcia. And this increase in erosion, in turn, will have important implications, such as “changes in land use or abandonment of crops”, for example, which will affect the lives of many people. Be aware and adapt From the AGE they issue all these warnings because they consider that “the first step towards a resilient society is the awareness of the population about the level of risk to which it is subjected, and its leading role in adapting to risk”.