INSEE maintained its growth forecast at 2.6% in 2022. But inflation and fears about energy supply could lead to a decline in activity. French gross domestic product (GDP) should stagnate this autumn , but fears over energy supply and high inflation pose “heavy threats” to growth in Europe, INSEE said on Thursday. In its economic report, the National Institute of Statistics maintained its growth forecast of 2.6% in 2022 for France, but does not rule out a decline in activity in the fourth quarter in the event of economic difficulties. energy supply and production stoppages. INSEE bases its forecast on modest growth in the third quarter (+0.2%, as announced in the September economic update) after a dynamic second quarter (+0.5 %), is it specified in this note entitled “An autumn heavy with threats for Europe”. Uncertainty hangs over the last three months of the year due to a “darkening international scenario”, Julien Pouget, head of the economic situation department at INSEE, said Thursday at a press conference. . “Slowdown in international trade by the end of the year, inflation which remains high, specific concerns in Europe on energy supplies, a tightening of monetary policies against the backdrop of increased volatility in the markets “, he listed to illustrate the threats to French but also global growth. Fears about “possible production stoppages” The forecast of GDP stagnation in the fourth quarter is therefore an “intermediate scenario ” which includes “the resilience” of certain indicators but also the “fears associated with possible production stoppages” in the industry. Inflation, contained in September (5.6% over one year) in particular thanks to the rebate at the pump, should decrease slightly in October then “would start rising again” in November with the reduction in the rebate on fuel, for reach 6.4% over one year in December (against 6.6% forecast previously). Over the year, the inflation forecast goes from 5.3% to 5.2%, a much better forecast than other European countries thanks to “fixing energy prices” and “public policies put in place to limit price increases”, says Julien Pouget. However, the rise in prices is weighing on household purchasing power, which should fall more than expected in 2022 (-0.6% according to the indicator per consumption unit, against -0.5% initially expected). If the support measures make it possible to limit energy prices, it is food that, since September, weighs the most with inflation expected year-on-year at nearly 12% at the end of the year.SEE ALSO – Energy sobriety plan: the State wants to save 10% of its energy expenditure by 2024
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