AFP, published on Monday September 26, 2022 at 2:30 p.m. The war in Ukraine will continue to be expensive: the OECD has significantly downgraded its forecast for world growth for next year in the face of the more lasting effects than anticipated from the conflict, Europe paying the biggest bill. “The world is paying a very high price for Russian aggression in Ukraine,” Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said during a press conference on Monday. “Households and businesses are suffering,” he continued, pointing out that “the burden of higher energy and gas prices as well as China’s zero Covid policy imply weaker growth and higher and persistent inflation.” . The lack of calm on the ground in the eighth month of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, symbolized by the recent mobilization of reservists by Moscow, encourages the international organization based in Paris to be pessimistic. In its quarterly report, entitled “paying the price of war”, the OECD predicts that after a difficult year 2022, especially due to the inflationary outbreak, “global growth should continue to weaken in 2023”.
The OECD is forecasting global GDP growth of 2.2% against 2.8% expected in June, although it maintained its forecast for 2022 at 3% after having cut it sharply in recent months. inflationary trends are becoming more widespread, with rising energy, transport and other costs impacting prices,” writes the OECD, which has revised down its 2023 forecasts for almost all countries. of the G20 with the exception of Turkey, Indonesia and the United Kingdom whose economic activity will stagnate.- 2,800 billion – To show the extent of the shock of the war, the OECD has estimated dollars the financial losses to be expected next year compared to estimates prior to the arrival of the tanks in Ukraine, “i.e. the size of the French economy” measured in annual GDP, indicated the institution’s acting chief economist , Alvaro Perreira. It is logically the neighboring countries of kyiv and Moscow that will bear the highest costs. more important: growth in the euro zone has undergone a stronger revision, to 0.3% against 1.6% expected in June. Inflation is expected there this year at 8.1% and 6.2% next year. Agitated for months as a major risk, recession is the scenario adopted by the OECD for Germany: the first According to the OECD, European economy would see its GDP fall by 0.7% next year, a plunge of 2.4 points compared to the previous forecast. Its main neighbors are not affected: growth of 0.4% is expected in Italy, 1.5% in Spain, and 0.6% in France, where the government is still counting on 1%. The International Monetary Fund predicted in its latest world panorama 0.8% growth in Germany, 1% in France and 1.2% in the euro zone, but it could revise its figures downwards in October. Among the other major regions, US growth is expected by the OECD at 0.5% against 1.2% expected in June, and Chinese growth at 4.7% against 4.9%. – “Significant uncertainty” – “Significant uncertainty surrounds these economic projections,” concedes the OECD, faced with the risk of energy shortages during the winter. The dizzying rise in prices is already threatening the activity of a growing number of companies.
According to the OECD, greater gas shortages than expected could, through a cascading effect, reduce the GDP of the euro zone by an additional 1.25 points next year, pushing many States into recession. This scenario is all the more worrying as the central banks of developed and emerging countries are firmly committed to raising their interest rates to contain inflation, with the risk of undermining growth there too.Rate hikes are “a key factor “in the slowdown at work, notes the OECD, which however calls on central bankers to continue. War, rate hikes, Covid-19, debt crisis… The OECD lists in its forecasts all the risks surrounding the economy. From there to lead to a plunge in global GDP? “The central scenario is not a global recession, but the risks have increased in recent months,” conceded Alvaro Pereira. Targeted and temporary fiscal measures affecting households and businesses are part of the solution to the emergency, stresses the institution, saying that so far the measures taken against rising energy prices have been “poorly targeted”, often benefiting too many households and businesses.
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