Interview with the physicist, meteorologist and popularizer, who is presenting a new book on climate change Viñas warns of the seriousness of the situation, but sends an optimistic message: “The data is overwhelming, but we will know how to adapt” “Surely in 30 years we will be better prepared to withstand a summer like the one we’ve had this year” “We must invest more in making people think, and make them aware that this system is leaking in many places and that can lead us to a complicated and dangerous situation”. Said and done. José Miguel Viñas has ten books on weather and climate behind him. And this one that he publishes now is not one more. It is the first in which, rather than explaining what is happening, he contributes his own reflections and invites action. Viñas is a physicist, a meteorologist at Meteored, a consultant for the World Meteorological Organization, a veteran disseminator (many will know him through his Twitter profile: @divulgameteo), and now also an essayist. In ‘Our climate challenge’ (Ed. Alalphabet) he explains the keys to the greatest challenge “that humanity has ever faced”, but invites us to face it, leaving aside catastrophism. “The challenge is enormous, but not impossible.” He asks: “A window of opportunity is opening for us to change the world for the better. This is how we have to see it, even if the future looks black”, you say in the book. You pose climate change as an opportunity to change the model, the problem is approached positively. Has the catastrophism with which it has been raised until now not worked? Answer: It was important to reflect this, already from the title. Although the reality is what it is, I am confident that there is still room to avoid going to the worst scenarios. Because, in addition, although climate change has been talked about for a long time, it was seen as something distant. And the message of how terrible it can be was fed quite a bit. Something that is not yet perceived was combined with a very extreme message, which led one to think that ‘these are already giving the rattle’… But this has changed. The evolution of the climate has changed and these impacts are already fully affecting us. Climate change is already being very noticeable. It is not necessary to “inflate” the message, we are already perceiving climate change, now we have to consider more what we can do. Q: The book notes that “regardless of where we live and what activity we engage in, we are all beginning to be affected.” Climate change is already here, you state it emphatically. Should we stop talking about this topic in the future and talk about it in the present? A: It is clear that there has been a turning point, although we cannot put an exact date on it. We have been three or four years in which we see the magnitude of phenomena that are happening, and that are happening all over the world… The message that has to work is that of action. It is no longer thinking about our grandchildren, but about what is going to affect our way of life, and of course that of our children. We have to do things to change it. Q: Despite all this, voices are still being heard that appeal to the idea that “the climate has always changed, it’s cycles…”. You speak of the “singularity” of current climate change. What is it that makes it different? A: Basically two things, even three. On the one hand, we see that throughout history there have been many changes in the climate, yes, but none of them can be attributed as the main cause of our activities, the gases that we have been emitting into the atmosphere. And it is already more than proven that, without these emissions, the climate would not have evolved as it has in recent decades. Although there are undoubtedly also natural factors that influence this change, there is a causal relationship between our activities and the changes in climate that we are seeing now. On the other hand, it is a change that is happening very fast. There is no previous evidence that, in such a short period of time – a century – there is such a large temperature change. There have been changes before, but on a scale of millennia. We are now seeing a rise of more than 1 degree in a century. And there is talk of rises of up to 4 degrees and even 5 in some scenarios. The speed of this climate change is also what makes it difficult for us to adapt. And the third singularity would be that, although in other times of history there have been changes, we were not 8,000 million people on the planet. And many, moreover, living in areas that are very vulnerable to these changes. This pressure that we exert on the environment, in different areas of the world, is new. And when we talk about rising sea levels, for example, it is something that can affect millions and millions of people. Q: Regarding the increase in temperature, there is something that we are already seeing, and that is not normal either. Nighttime temperatures are rising faster than daytime temperatures. A: What lies behind this already verifiable evidence is the urban heat island effect. We live concentrated in cities, millions of people, and if the temperature rises, there the rise is greater. We have more and more nights that we call “tropical”, it is something that is observed in many areas of the world. It is a consequence of the effect generated by large cities. Q: The study of climate change deals with many uncertainties. But over the years, the level of confidence in the projections made by scientists has also increased. The warnings issued by the IPCC, now, are already based on some certainties… A: That uncertainty is the amount of ignorance about climate change that we have. As we learn more about this process, the uncertainty decreases. In the first IPCC report, in 1990, it was higher. Now it is much smaller. This is given by the knowledge of what is happening. In 30 years, much progress has been made. But they are still climate projections, that must also be clear. Then a lot of things can happen. Because there are factors that cannot be modelled. For example, what is happening now in Ukraine, we did not count on it. There are things that can enter the scene and you don’t know it. Projections are made, but they should not be seen as a common forecast. Q: In this book, your texts are accompanied by others, written by professionals from various fields, who also reflect on what is happening. Why this format? To make it clear that this affects us all? A: Yes, that was kind of the idea. Up until now, all he had done was popularize science, but this book also has an essay part, of reflections on what is happening. And it seemed appropriate to me that other people who have their own knowledge, their own experience, also share them, because they are dedicated to things related to this. Or not, because there are also people from different fields who give you another vision. For example, the medical issue, the impacts on health. I even included my son, an ESO student, because he wanted to contribute his vision. Q: Among them, that of the climatologist Jorge Olcina has caught my attention, which is located in the worst. We are in 2050 and “human beings have managed to change the climate, half a century earlier than expected.” Is it a plausible scenario? A: Well, he has raised it as if it were dystopian, but there are projections that point to that. It is one of the possible scenarios, yes. Q: Possible, yes, but do you see it likely? A: I don’t know, everything will depend on whether climate action works more or less. It is very difficult to know. I am relatively optimistic. I think we are going to do things, but I don’t know to what extent we will be able to avoid the worst case scenario. I trust so. Q: In the book you cite many examples of impacts that we are already seeing, linked to the rise in temperature. Tell me one that seems especially clear to you. A: There is an example that helps very well to understand the change that is taking place: the extreme values that occurred last year in Toledo. Last year, he broke an absolute record for snowfall in 24 hours with Filomena. The following week, it broke the minimum temperature record. Later, in summer, in August it registered its maximum temperature record. And at the end of September, a DANA caused the greatest torrential rain that has ever been recorded in Toledo. That in the same year these four records have been concentrated in the same point is illustrating, in some way, the change that is taking place. The extremes are shooting and concentrating on time. Q: Climate change has “more unaffordable economic costs with each passing year,” we read. And it is something that we are already experiencing. Do you think that it is going to be that, that it affects our pockets, what makes us finally react? A: The problem is that we are reaching that point that should not be reached: that we have no choice but to invest in adaptation. It was the thing to avoid. But yes, of course climate change is going to affect our pockets, because the system of society that we have set up is unsustainable, and it is beginning to fail. Q: The truth is that, if 30 years ago there was talk of reversing trends, later there was more talk of mitigating, and now we hear more and more of a word: adaptation. Climate change is accelerating, time continues to run against it, is it only left to adapt? A: There has been a turning point, yes, as a result of the latest IPCC report this year. From the UN and from the IPCC it is already said that we must bet on adaptation. Because, even if we manage to go down a good path, by the middle of the century the impacts will continue to increase, due to the inertia of the climate system. The temperature may exceed 2 degrees at the end of the century and the impacts will be much greater. Q: But the solution is clear, and it remains the same: change our way of life, our model of society. It is not easy, but you say: “We are risking the future. That better future, which is still possible”. And hearing this message, in a positive way, is comforting. Especially if you have children. A: Well, there is a bit of a contradiction perhaps in the book. On the one hand, I want to convey that message of optimism, but on the other hand, the data is overwhelming. And things like what’s happening in the Ukraine right now don’t invite positive thinking either. 30 years is going to be very different, in addition, to the life that exists now. But it doesn’t mean it’s going to be a worse life. Q: From a climatic point of view, there will be things that are. For example, that summers like the one we have had become commonplace, which is now considered exceptional. A: Yes, but if the investment is made in adaptation, that will not come suddenly. We will have enough margin to change certain things and, although that impact is there, it does not affect us so much. Surely in 30 years we will be better prepared to endure a summer like the one we have had this year. Q: Adaptation is key at this time. A: Yes. We have to see, for example, how we approach summers, because that is changing. Finishing school in June and coming back in September, all of us leaving in August… Maybe in 20 years this will have to change and in August we should all be working in buildings with conditioned temperatures to withstand the heat. And we may have to take our vacations in another way, perhaps spread throughout the year… We’ll see that kind of thing. Q: We have to trust that we will know how to adapt, then… A: We will know how to adapt. You have to convey that idea. But without hiding what there is, either. Projections are tricky, in some scenarios.
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