NewsWorldThe trajectory of the cyclone that threatens the Canary...

The trajectory of the cyclone that threatens the Canary Islands: “In two days it will be south of the Islands”

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It has not yet formed, but the probability that it will become a cyclone is already over 70%. Canaries are recommended to be prepared for its effects, rains that can reach 150 liters per square meter. After Sunday, its trajectory is uncertain. “There are two options, one moves it away from the Archipelago, the other brings it closer” That a tropical cyclone forms near the Canary Islands is a rarity, but everything indicates that it will be so. “Right now the probability is between 70% and 80%,” Víctor González, from Meteored, confirms to NIUS. “So it’s almost certain that this weekend we will have a tropical depression or even a tropical storm in this area.” The models of the National Hurricane Center indicate that it can happen in the next two days and that it will leave important rains that will affect the archipelago, so it is recommended that the Canary Islands be on alert. The AEMET has issued orange warnings for Sunday that may or may not rise to a red level depending on the evolution of the phenomenon in the coming hours. “The population must be attentive to the most up-to-date official forecasts, because as the situation becomes clearer, the forecast will be much more accurate and will probably warn of an important phenomenon that can alter outdoor activities,” González points out. What is its trajectory going to be?” Over the next 48 hours it is known that it is going to start moving north. Right now it is more or less in the latitude of Cape Verde, and it will go up until it is halfway between Cape Verde and the Canary Islands”, advances the Meteored meteorologist. “The wave is going to move in that direction and is going to end up in the south of the Canary Islands. And in theory, what it should do in that period of time, in addition to moving north, is to intensify. That is to say, it is quite probable that it ends as a tropical storm in that sector.” “It will be located south of Hierro and La Palma, without reaching them, but very close,” he says. “Then it has two possible paths,” adds the expert. “From that point, it can continue its path moving towards the center of the Atlantic. That is, moving away from the islands and weakening, which is most likely,” he clarifies. “Or on the contrary, also weakening, it tends to get a little closer to the islands. But this is the least likely, in fact, it has only a 20% chance of occurrence,” highlights the Meteored specialist. “Therefore, It is very unlikely that it will reach the islands. In fact, it is most likely that the impact on the islands will not be direct, but will remain a little on the sidelines and it will be the structures associated with this cyclone of storms and others that will to reach the islands,” he predicts. Effects on the Canary Islands “What is going to attract the most attention is going to be the copious rainfall and it is important to know that it is not necessary for the cyclone to arrive in its entirety, that is, for the center of the cyclone to be over the Canary Islands for there to be adverse phenomena In this case, it is most likely that it will not arrive and that it will stay a few hundred kilometers to the south or west, but that will not prevent it from raining a lot, because all the cloudiness around it, the storms that form around them, they can leave very important rains”. “Then, the wind is not the phenomenon that we should worry about, because being far away, the cyclone, even if there is wind, will not be extraordinary, but it will be about the rains,” the expert clarifies. Where and how much will it rain? ? “Well, from one model to another the position of these precipitations varies a bit. But everything seems to indicate that it will be the western islands, La Palma, Hierro, La Gomera, maybe even Tenerife, which will receive the most important amounts of rain. We would be talking about high amounts, some models place them above 100 liters per square meter. In other words, it is something to monitor,” warns González. The AEMET has issued a special warning for tropical cyclones, warning that the rains They will start already at noon on Saturday and will last until Monday. “Tomorrow rainfall is expected to accumulate up to 60 mm in 12 hours in numerous locations on the western islands. On Sunday the 25th, an intensification of rainfall is expected, which can be very strong (up to 30 mm in 1 hour) with accumulations of 100 mm every 12 hours, except in Lanzarote and Fuerteventura where up to 40 mm are forecast every 12 hours. These precipitations would continue during the first half of Monday 26, beginning to decrease during the afternoon. It is probable that during these three days they will accumulate more of 150 mm in some points of the western islands and of Gran Canaria”, it collects in its statement. “Although no windstorm or maritime storm is expected, strong or very strong gusts of wind with a southern component may occur in the western islands, as well as a sea of ​​wind with waves of around 2 meters in those same areas,” the Agency details. Meteorological. An unusual phenomenon “It is common for a wave like this to move through that sector, that can happen, but a tropical cyclone is formed from one of these waves in this sector, specifically, it is quite rare. There are very few precedents, to say almost none, in that area, and the reason so far has been that the water there is much colder and that the Sahara desert is also very close, which gives it dry air that does not allow the plants to grow well. storms,” ​​he details. “In this sense, if a tropical storm were to form, which as we have seen is very likely, it would be a real rarity.” The reason? “It is early to blame climate change, but it is clear that by raising the temperature of the sea we are increasing one of the ingredients needed to form cyclones. And the consequence of this high temperature of the sea is that we are seeing more and more cyclones form in little or nothing usual zones”, concludes the meteorologist of Meteored.

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