The probability of forming a cyclone in the south of the Canary Islands increases to 60% The most likely scenarios lead to the center of the future cyclone near the Western Islands but without reaching land directly Heavy rains are expected on Saturday that can be locally torrential and leave up to 100 liters per square meter These rains will be produced by the interaction of a trough of cold air in height and the possible cyclone located in the southeast of the Canary Islands. The interaction will cause intense and widespread rains on the islands that can be locally torrential in some areas depending on the orography of the island and the persistence of the rains, says Francisco Martín, meteorologist at Meteored. Accumulated precipitation until September 27, 2022 at 00 UTC according to the HRES ECMWF model. HRES ECMWF model On Sunday the worst day According to the Aemet, different cloud bands associated with this possible cyclone are observed, which are the ones that would leave widespread precipitation in the islands, unlike what happened last weekend, when the rain fell in a localized manner, that is, in specific areas. Despite this, the heat and the feeling of embarrassment will persist. Very strong gusts of wind on the summits are not ruled out either. The rains will begin on Saturday afternoon in the south of the Canary Islands; El Hierro, La Palma, La Gomera and Gran Canaria, which could leave between 20 and 40 liters per square meter in 24 hours. They could also be locally strong in some areas depending on the orography of the island, “it is enough for a cloud to stagnate for between 100 and 120 liters per square meter to fall in 24 hours.” From Meteored they indicate that predicting with such precision with more than three days is complicated. On Sunday the rainfall persists and will be more intense leaving more than 40 liters per square meter and more extensive affecting practically all the islands. On Monday the intense and locally strong rains will continue and by Tuesday the rainfall could subside and some improvement would be noted. Intense and widespread rains in the Canary Islands over the weekend Image of water vapor from September 22, 2022 Forecast trajectory of the cyclone For this September 22, the tropical wave will already have its minimum depression over the ocean and will move towards the east of the Islands of Cape Verde to later take a path to the north and over open waters, warn from Meteored. It is most likely that by Saturday it will have already become a cyclone and on the 25th, Sunday, the center of the eastern cyclone could be southwest of the Canary Islands over open waters and remain stationary during this day and on Monday, the 26th. Later, the The system would degrade and die in that area or its remains would move far to the west of the Canary Islands, entering the central Atlantic. Meteored asserts that the most likely scenarios lead to the center of the future cyclone near the Western Islands but without reaching land directly. . A potentially adverse and rare situation for the Islands that must be watched and monitored continuously.
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